03/24/2010 大盘回顾 （NDXA50R Too High）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps. (max was 16) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10) 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 03/17 Market Recap: Dumb money confidence too high. 03/17 Market Recap: Too many bearish extremes among all sentimentrader indicators. 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: A little too high. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): *NDXA50R is way too high. CONCLUSION Bearish signals are accumulated enough to justify a short sell. for aggressive traders only. 03/19, Bearish Engulfing, could be another short sell chances, good luck bears!

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L 03/11 low Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell     *Short if SPY Open > Close tomorrow. VIX MA ENV     OTHER ETFs MID TERM SHORT TERM COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP ? IWM UP ? CHINA DOWN ? EMERGING ? ? CANADA UP ? 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): 2 Doji under important resistance. Lots of negative divergence plus BPTSX is overbought which had led to a 2 weeks pullbacks in the past. FINANCIALS UP UP REITS UP UP *Consolidates on a small range, more likely to breakout on the upside. MATERIALS ? ? *Hollow red bar, pullback ahead? OIL & ENERGY ? ? GOLD & GDX DOWN DOWN 3.2.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Daily): *Breakdown below both price channel and consolidation range, doesn’t look good. DOLLAR UP UP Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. BOND DOWN DOWN *Could be a Symmetrical Triangle breakdown. Expect more pullbacks ahead.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER TRIPLE WITCHING, DOW DOWN 15 OF LAST 22, ALSO MARCH IS KNOWN AS A TURNING MONTH

See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: COULD RISE TO AROUND 03/25 BEFORE ANY MEANINGFUL PULLBACK

 

OK，明天是03/25 (See 03/22 Market Recap for more details)，let’s see这次cycle工不工作。我知道，最近工作的不好，不过cycle工作的时候还是比较多的，没有100%准确的indicator，因此不能因为最近不工作了，就从此不用cycle了。我的猜测是大盘继续盘整几天后pullback，不一定准时在03/25 pullback。图上另外标出的下一个重要的时间点是04/10，怎么来的，陆陆续续讲过，以后还会说更多的理由，现在先知道这个时间点就行。从cycle理论讲，不排除大盘从03/25 pullback到04/10的可能。Again，这里再强调一下，请务必understand how to use the table above，分析不等于trading，仅仅是info而已，目前并没有任何证据表明大盘会pullback到04/10。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: MORE TOP SIGNALS, COULD MEAN MORE CONSOLIDATION BEFORE PULLBACK

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary提到了6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch，注意明天是否SPY Open > Close to confirm NYMO Sell setup。

 

 

1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily)，下面的NDXA50R (Nasdaq % stocks above MA(50))太高了，看红虚线标出来的地方，这么高的NDXA50R并不表示马上pullback，可能盘整几天，但是多半也走不远了。

 

 

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)，可能是个Descending Triangle。Descending Triangle其实不是reversal pattern，而是continuation pattern，所以并不能看着Descending Triangle 就说bearish，一切还要看明天。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

 

xiaoxiaozhang

haha, shafa!

xiaoxiaozhang

多谢老蛇！

xiaoxiaozhang

一不作，二不休！

mtlu2

sss

summer123

brcm

.............最近股市真是生猛呀。。难怪有人说：现在熊熊只能把身子往肉板上一放,牛牛愿怎么宰就怎么宰吧...

cartier

michaelzhang

X中国陆军

Cool

IMeMyself

first page

stockgirl

First page

baker

thanks a lot

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


      I'm waiting so long , finally the shorting  chances coming......hehe

man_student

first page, ding !!

t-k

Seal

Thanks.

registered

fp

like2swing

thanks.

coexist