03/31/2010 大盘回顾 （A Bigger Symmetrical Triangle）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH *1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps. (max was 16) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10) 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): NDXA50R is way too high. 03/25 Market Recap: Smart/dumb confidence spread is too large. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. *0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCE MA(5) too low. CONCLUSION Bearish signals are accumulated enough to justify a short sell. For aggressive traders only. 03/25, another Bearish Engulfing and the NYMO Sell setup was triggered.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L 03/22 low Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell 03/25 S 03/25 high Non-Stop     Newly added setup, will give signal on this setup the next time it’s triggered. OTHER ETFs MID TERM INDICATOR COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP *2 of 3 BUY 6.4.6 QQQQ Black Bar Watch: doesn’t look good. 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high. IWM UP 2 of 2 SELL CHINA UP 1 of 1 BUY Symmetrical Triangle breakout. Expect more on the upside. EMERGING ? 2 of 2 BUY   CANADA UP 2 of 3 SELL 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): 3 Doji under important resistance. Lots of negative divergence plus BPTSX is too high. Expect pullback. BOND DOWN *1 of 2 SELL DOLLAR UP 2 of 2 BUY Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. *Hollow red bar, may rebound. *6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: GLD black bar usually mean UUP rebound the next day. GOLD DOWN 2 of 2 SELL *Black bar, could pullback. GDX DOWN 2 of 2 SELL Small Double Top, target $41.52. *Black bar, could pullback. OIL ? 1 of 2 SELL *Black bar, could pullback. ENERGY ? 2 of 3 SELL FINANCIALS UP 2 of 3 BUY REITS UP *2 of 2 SELL False breakout on narrow range so the real breakout could be on the downside. MATERIALS ? 2 of 3 BUY 4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: APRIL THE 1ST IS VERY BULLISH

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary提到了明天的seasonality，由于月初和pre-holiday的double effects，所以很bullish。下面是具体的统计数据。

 

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. The first trading day in April, Dow up 12 of last 15, 2008 +3.2%, 2009 +2.0%.
2. NASDAQ up 13 of 15 day before Good Friday, 9 straight since 2001.
3. Day after Easter, S&P down 16 of 20 from 1984 to 2003, but improving recently, up 5 of last 6.

下面的Performance Surrounding Good Friday来自sentimentrader。

 

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: TODAY OR TOMORROW COULD BE A CYCLE TOP, PULLBACK NEXT WEEK UNTIL AROUND 04/12

 

1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily)，今天和明天都有cycle due，看起来象是top。我的经验，如果multiple cycles due date重合的话，会比较准。加上yesterday’s report提到的4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), BPSPX is way too overbought，因此下周可能会是weekly red bar，而这又正好符合03/26 Market Recap里分析的04/12 to 04/15是可能的turning point的说法，所以最后的结论就是今明两天可能是cycle top，下周起pullback到04/12左右。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: A SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE MEANS ONE MORE PUSH UP?

 

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)，今天整了个更大的Symmetrical Triangle，根据Elliott Wave Theory，加上上面提到的bullish seasonality，因此明天可能有one more push up。我不是非常sure，因为今天金子和石油都是黑棒棒而米金是空心红棒棒(see table above)，特别是金子黑棒棒，根据6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch，往往意味着明天米金反弹，所以明天大盘能bullish到啥程度，我持怀疑态度。

 

 

6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch，明天如果有新高（既然seasonality is very very bullish），会trigger当前NYMO Sell short position的stop loss，但是因为下面的NYMO已经非常negative了，如果下周又有SPY Open > Close的话，NYMO Sell被触发的可能性非常高，因此操作上自己斟酌着看吧，要么把stop loss稍微加大点，要么还是按计划stop loss，等下周trigger NYMO Sell后再enter position。

 

 

0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch， 这个看一下，今天的CPCE又是很低，这样CPCE MA(5)的top signal再次被触发，老规矩，加到上面的table里。还不知道怎么用table的，请看how to use the table above，不要到时候又来抱怨说我喊了很久要pullback了。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

xiaoyaoxl

沙发

oda

bendeng

柴禾

占个好位子慢慢看。

rosyrosy

Diffusion

t-k

ddr

cmzhou

hillcrest

thanks boss

ut1984

MtlJaysFan

想发

happyface

看完了啥也没抢着.

X中国陆军

Cool

源济

20108

H@T

revolver

RedCedar

Thanks Cobra!!!