04/20/2010 大盘回顾 （CPCI Rose Big on a Strong Up Day）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode

ATTENTION 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 17 unfilled up gaps. (max was 18) 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Could be an Ascending Broadening Wedge in the forming. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE and CPC MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. *0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCE MA(5) too low. CPCI too high.  8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: New record low. 04/14 Market Recap: Smart/dumb confidence spread at sentimentrader is too large. 04/14 Market Recap: Too many bearish extreme signals at sentimentrader. 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE broke the trend line, so top confirmed? *6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: A little bit too low. CONCLUSION If it’s the same post Major Distribution Day pattern then the market was bottomed.  Just with the put call ratio this extreme, I don’t know how the market is going to handle it? In wait and see mode.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L 04/08 low Reversal Bar *04/20 L 0.9xATR(10)   NYMO Sell     *Sell short if SPY tomorrow’s open > tomorrow’s close. The stop loss will be 0.8 x ATR(10) in case you need it to calculate the position size. Non-Stop     Newly added setup, will give signal on this setup the next time it’s triggered. OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP   4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high. IWM UP   *Morning Doji Star? Not sure. CHINA ?   Big red bar always led to more red days, so expect more pullbacks. EMERGING UP   *Morning Star, so more rebound? CANADA UP   4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): BPTSX is too high. BOND DOWN   Testing resistance. DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. 4.2.1 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Weekly): Hollow red bar, rebound? *6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: GLD black bar means UUP gap up tomorrow morning? GOLD UP   GDX UP   OIL UP ENERGY UP   FINANCIALS UP   REITS UP MATERIALS UP   4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: THE NEXT IMPORTANT DATE IS 04/20

The market could rebound to 04/20 (+-) then pullback to 05/06 (+-)? See 04/16 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

Maintain the forecast for Roller Coaster ahead for 3 reasons:

1. According to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back (See 03/19 Market Recap for more details). Since we’ve seen the new high so now it’s the pullback’s turn.
2. Statistically when the market has been up, especially at a 52 week high, entering the earnings season, the average performance during earnings season is usually not good (See 04/09 Market Recap for more details).
3. 6.1.0 Extreme CPCE Readings Watch, take a look at how the market behave when CPCE was extremely low. I expect no difference this time (choppy ahead like past) especially when there’re simply so many bearish extremes accumulated in the table above.

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE SOME WEAKNESS AHEAD

 

今天有两个不太牛牛friendly的信号，加上After Bell Quick Summary里提到的今天是All Up Day，因此可能短期会有pullback。

 

0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch，CPCI有点高了，在大盘大涨的今天大户整那么多index put是比较可疑的。

 

 

6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals，这个有点低了。VIX to VXV ratio最近好像工作的不错。

 

 

今天还有个非常有意思的现象是Nasdaq Intraday Cumulative TICK又涨到天上去了，very very bullish，可能有点太bullish了，上次，我提到这个有趣的现象是在04/14 Market Recap里。Coincidence? Well, we’ll see.

 

 

TICKQ可以解释为啥Nasdaq Intraday Cumulative TICK涨到天上去了，因为今天一天都没有小于零的TICK as everybody rushed to buy。

 

 

顺便看看多少人买AAPL的CALL (from sentimentrader morning report) 。Well, judging by AAPL AH actions, everybody will be rich tomorrow morning at open. Making money could be that easy, no wonder I had a reader asking me this morning, since all the bearish signals in the table above didn’t work why bother mentioning them! Well, that’s certainly was a good question.

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

 

abaqus

1st

abaqus

2nd

abaqus

3rd

abaqus

all in, luck day!

oldfox

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


    i'm next......

ut1984

abaqus

interesting chart of AAPL call/put..
seems sell-off follows peak call/put ratio at most time..

let's see see tomorrow.. might sell on good news again?

oda

Poo

thank you

sooners

回复 8# sooners


    ok, first page......

always

oda

no bad, actually the second one

blueocean

"...... no wonder I had a reader asking me this morning, since all the bearish signals in the table above didn’t work why bother mentioning them! ......"

thanks.

maomi

t-k

weigoodone01

Prada!

thx! your chart sizes are perfect now. thanks a lot!

stockgirl

Thank you! First page!