04/23/2010 大盘回顾 （New high ahead but could be a red week the next week）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 5 are OVERBOUGHT Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode

ATTENTION 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 16 unfilled up gaps. (max was 18) 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Could be an Ascending Broadening Wedge in the forming. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246. *0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: NYHGH new high could mean SPX new high ahead. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE and CPC MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L 04/19 low   Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell     *Stopped out short position with loss. Non-Stop     OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP   *4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX overbought and too high above MA(200). *0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals: Ascending Triangle breakout, target $51.48. *ChiOsc a little too high. IWM UP   *ChiOsc a little too high. *4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly): Too high above MA(200). CHINA ?   EMERGING UP   CANADA UP   BOND DOWN   *0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Breakout of a Bull Flag, so yield could up while bond will be down. DOLLAR UP GOLD UP   GDX UP   OIL UP ENERGY UP   *4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Breakout! FINANCIALS UP   *4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Too high above MA(200). REITS UP MATERIALS UP

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MOSTLY THE MONTH’S LAST TRADING WEEK WAS RED SINCE AUG 2009

 

见下图，非常有趣，好像自2009年8月起，基本上每个月的最后一周都red。

 

 

尤其是最后2天。还记得这个setup吧？

 

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: THE NEXT IMPORTANT DATE IS 05/06

See 04/16 Market Recap for more details. Please don’t read too much into cycle analysis, all I know is that the next potential turn date is 05/06 (+-) which could either be a top or a bottom depending on how the market marches to that date.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

See 04/16 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A NEW HIGH AHEAD BUT COULD BE A RED WEEK THE NEXT WEEK

 

先说好消息，0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator，下面的NYHGH (NYSE New 52 Week Highs) new high了，这意味着SPX will have a new high ahead。见下面的图，看看过去的例子，虽然NYHGH very high后第二天红多绿少，但是一般NYHGH要形成negative divergence以后，SPX才有可能top，换句话就是说，既使下周一大盘就pullback的话，此后应该会反弹至new high （只有这样NYHGH才有机会形成negative divergence）。

 

 

4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)，上面说到SPX new high，我猜，Fib 61.8% at 1228的可能性很大，已经没有多远了。不过见红色竖线(PPO(1,40,1))，每次SPX过于远离MA(200)的时候，好像next week都red了。combine上面seasonality session提到的mostly every month’s last trading week was a red week since Aug 2009，因此下周red的可能性还是比较高的。

 

Summerrose

一不小心又抢了一个沙发!

Summerrose

Summerrose

Summerrose

Summerrose

ypm968

ding

soulvirus

thx

源济

开小差

thx,ding

ninemao

大家还没睡啊.
晚上好!

darren168

Thanks

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

btmarket

Ding.

dayuangone8

first page?

MoMo

回复 1# Cobra


    DING LAODA

surya

Thanks!

萧秋水

辛苦,多谢!

cartier

busywind

thanks