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SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
ST Model |
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*Stopped out of long position with loss. |
Reversal Bar |
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NYMO Sell |
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Non-Stop |
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VIX MA ENV |
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OTHER ETFs |
TREND |
TRADE |
COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. |
QQQQ |
UP |
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IWM |
UP |
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CHINA |
DOWN |
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EMERGING |
*DOWN |
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*Confirmed bearish 1-2-3 formation, so the trend is down. |
EUROPEAN |
DOWN |
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CANADA |
UP |
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Lots negative divergence and I don’t like the BPTSX bearish crossover. Plus 2 reversal bars in a row today, should mean something. |
BOND |
*UP |
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*Confirmed breakout, upgrade the trend to up from down. ChiOsc is a little too high though. |
EURO |
DOWN |
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YEN |
DOWN |
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GOLD |
UP |
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4.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. Also there’s a small Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $121.96. |
OIL |
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ENERGY |
UP |
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FINANCIALS |
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Price overlap, so could be a failed bearish 1-2-3 formation, the trend is unclear. |
REITS |
UP |
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MATERIALS |
*DOWN |
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*Bearish 1-2-3 formation breakdown, so downgrade the trend to down from up. | |
*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLISH
See 04/30 Market Recap for more details.
CYCLE ANALYSIS: COULD BE A CYCLE TOP AROUND 05/03 TO 05/10
See 04/30 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD OR THE MARKET COULD BE TOPPED
See 04/30 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE REBOUND BUT COULD BE MORE SELLINGS AFTER THE REBOUND
今天是Major Distribution Day (NYSE Down Volume : NYSE Up Volume >= 9)。关于Major Distribution Day,有三个规律:
- 6.3.2a Major Distribution Day Watch, the day after a Major Distribution Day is more likely a green day.
- 6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch, 2 Major Distribution Day within 5 days confirms an intermediate-term down trend, although a short-term rebound is also very likely.
- 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch, the market bottomed when NYSE Down Volume : NYSE Up Volume >= 35.
今天的重点是rule number two: 2 Major Distribution Day within 5 days,下面图的规律应该很清楚,short-term rebound maybe, but more selling ahead after the rebound。
如果Indeed more selling ahead的话,那text book target,根据Diamond Top推算,大约是$114.38,就是说可能会测试January high。1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min),有兴趣可以看一下,也可以看作是Complex Head and Shoulders Top,target和Diamond Top差不多。
明天,不仅Major Distribution Day的rule 1 (see After Bell Quick Summary)说可能green,这里还有两个证据:
0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily), VIX rose more than 18%, buy at today’s close sell at tomorrow’s close, 有82%的winning rate。
Intraday Cumulative TICK from sentimentrader, way too panic,所以也是说明天可能反弹。
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