05/06/2010 大盘回顾 （The Good, The Bad and The Ugly）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 5 of 6 are OVERSOLD SPY ST Model is in SELL mode

ATTENTION 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 10 unfilled up gaps (max was 18), 2 unfilled down gaps.  0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Could be an Ascending Broadening Wedge in the forming. BULLISH 0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily): More than 20% above MA(10). *0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? *0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold. *0.2.6 NYSE - Issues Advancing: Oversold. BEARISH 04/20 Market Recap: Record high Climax Buying. 04/20 Market Recap: Weekly Bearish Engulfing could mean a top. *6.4.1 Extreme NYADV Readings Watch: At least one lower close ahead. CONCLUSION 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, although the primary sell signal is not yelling yet, but sometimes NYSI and BPSPX sell signals did work, so be careful here.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model *The short sell was triggered on 05/06. But since there could be some rollbacks so I’m not sure how the SPY daily charted will be affected. Will give more details later. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop     VIX MA ENV       OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN   IWM DOWN   CHINA DOWN   EMERGING DOWN   EUROPEAN DOWN   CANADA ?   Breakdown below a huge consolidation area, doesn’t look good. BOND UP   EURO DOWN   YEN *UP     GOLD UP   4.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. Also there’s a small Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $121.96. OIL DOWN ENERGY *?   FINANCIALS DOWN   REITS UP MATERIALS DOWN

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLISH

See 04/30 Market Recap for more details.

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: COULD BE A CYCLE BOTTOM AROUND 05/07 TO 05/10

See 05/05 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD OR THE MARKET COULD BE TOPPED

See 04/30 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE REBOUND BUT AT LEAST A LOWER THEN TODAY’S CLOSE AHEAD

 

今天全乱套了，据说要rollback部份changes，所以不清楚所有的chart要怎么调整。我是不信把M错写成B的story的。要不，你明天下单的时候填个1K试试（不是填1,000，而是填1K），看看你的Broker理不理你。

 

The Ugly:

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary其实已经把话都说清楚了：

1. 巨大的Yen Carry Trade unwind是发生在crash之前，一定是有什么事情发生或者将要发生了，而不是谁把M错写成了B。
2. 短期会有反弹，但是，多半今天的panic low是会被retest的，因为今天的事件会迫使一些大资金liquidate。
3. 当然，今天也符合capitulation的特征，所以你要喊大底，sure，我没意见。

既然全乱套了，也就不能拿个daily图出来说怎么怎么technical damage了，图很ugly，但是Wall Street可能明天就把它们弄得很好看。我不是Wall Street，所以只能简单的列一下还能看的The Good and The Bad，希望各位不要太boring。

 

The Bad:

 

6.4.1 Extreme NYADV Readings Watch，这个图几乎guarantee SPX会有比今天low的close。

 

 

0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator, way too oversold, 看绿色虚线，短期会有反弹。这个信号是我的favorite，挺准的。当然，坏消息是，一般NYMO要先形成positive divergence后，SPX才有可能bottom，因此NYMO new low其实更证明我在05/05 Market Recap里提到的after a rebound there usually will be a 2nd leg down的说法。

 

 

The Good:

 

0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield，Yield跌得太快就使股票变得有吸引力了，因此这是个bottom的信号。这个信号还是挺准的，关于过去的准确性，参见8.2.1a Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2001-2004 and 8.2.1b Market top/bottom by ROC30 of 10Y T-Bill Yield 2005-2008。当然，凭一个信号就call底是不够的，所以按老规矩，put into the table above，bottom信号攒多了，自然会发效，现在wait and see先。

 

 

下面是短期可能反弹的一些信号，更多的可点击上面表格里的"5 of 6 are OVERSOLD"，都是比较准的oversold信号。

 

0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily), VIX rose more 18%，这个在05/04 Market Recap里讨论过，有80%以上的几率明天green。

 

 

6.3.2a Major Distribution Day Watch, 今天又是个Major Distribution Day (NYSE Down Volume : NYSE Up Volume >= 9)，这意味着明天有69%的机会green。当然提醒一下，上一次Major Distribution Day也象现在那么频繁的发生的时候发生了什么，看看图的左边部份。

 

darren168

1st.
Thanks

ddwrt

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always

ddwrt

顶的人不多，再来

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ddwrt

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quietplayer

谢谢老大!

天地

顶!
what a crazy market, have to see to believe.

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