05/07/2010 大盘回顾 （Speculation about the Pullback Time and Target）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are SELL 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in ? mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 5 of 6 are OVERSOLD SPY ST Model is in SELL mode

ATTENTION 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 10 unfilled up gaps (max was 18), 2 unfilled down gaps.  0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Could be an Ascending Broadening Wedge in the forming. BULLISH 0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily): More than 20% above MA(10). 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? *0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold. *0.2.6 NYSE - Issues Advancing: Oversold. *0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NYADV MA(10) oversold. *0.1.3 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NADVN too high. *0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC MA(5) too low. *8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Bottomed? *T2116: Too high. BEARISH CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU, RSP ST Model 05/06 S 1.9xATR(10) *Feel free to take profit. Down swing is different from up swing where profits could be huge within a day or two but also could be vanished within hours. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop     *0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals, the primary sell signal was triggered, but better wait for a few days to make sure it’s not a whipsaw. OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN   *Have fun looking at the following Fib confluences area target, I mean the whole table, not just this Nasdaq 100 target area. I don’t really believe them, just I didn’t realize it actually took me nearly 3 hours to update all the Fib confluences area. So if I don’t tell you here, then all my efforts are wasted. :-) *4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Fib confluences area around 1629 to 1660 could be the pullback target? IWM DOWN   *4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly): Fib confluences area around $57.85 to $58.97 could be the pullback target? CHINA DOWN   EMERGING DOWN   *4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): Fib confluences area around $34.08 to $34.25 could be the pullback target? EUROPEAN DOWN   *ChiOsc a little bit too low. *4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. A little too low below MA(200) though? CANADA *DOWN   *1.5.1 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold. So will see short-term rebound but after that the previous low may bet tested. *4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Fib confluences area around $15.59 to $15.77 could be the pullback target? TOAD bearish crossover, doesn’t look good. BOND UP   EURO DOWN   *4.2.1 Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE Weekly): Testing major support. Also too low below MA(200) now. YEN UP   *ChiOsc is a little too high. GOLD UP   4.3.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. Also there’s a small Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $121.96. OIL DOWN ENERGY *DOWN   *4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Fib confluences area around $51.72 to $52.44 could be the pullback target? FINANCIALS DOWN   *4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): May have fulfilled the Fib confluences target. The next target could be $12.53 to $12.78 if further down. REITS *? *4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Fib confluences area around $41.45 to $42.06 could be the pullback target? MATERIALS DOWN   *4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Fib confluences area around $27.86 to $28.55 could be the pullback target?

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AFTER MOTHER’S DAY, DOW UP 12 OF LAST 14

 

SPX TIME AND TARGET ANALYSIS: INITIAL TARGET AROUND 1050ISH, THE PULLBACK SWING COULD LAST TO 05/23

 

周五的After Bell Quick Summary提到了Symmetrical Triangle往往意味着Wave 4，因此很可能有还有Wave 5 down。如果这个推断成立的话（请注意这个前提哈），那么wave 5 target很可能是SPX 1040 to 1053 area。理由是multiple Fib confluences area，plus the 02/05 lows。

 

 

从上面的图还可以看到，另一个multiple Fib confluences area是在1008到1014 (see chart 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly) for how I get this Fib confluences area, if interested)，不过我认为这个area可能是反弹后再次下跌时的target。提醒一下，可能有同学已经不记得了，见下面的图，一般规律，这么强的downward push，至少应该是2 leg down。The 2nd leg target很可能是上面我说的1008 to 1014 area。

 

 

整个pullback的duration，我的猜测是至少要到05/24 (+-)。理由见下图，这次的pullback已经超过了June 2009 and January 2010的pullback，因此逻辑上讲，pullback的时间至少应该不短于前两次的时间，换句话说就是应该位于17 to 27 calendar day之间。如果按最长的27 calendar day算，那就是05/23左右。

 

 

根据Gann Day table，05/19 to 05/24正好有multiple Gann Day clustered together，且05/21是重要的solar term date，因此从另一个角度证明可能pullback要持续到05/23 (+-)，当然我不是说天天跌哈。顺便说，05/06，我说过是重要的Gann Day，也是重要的solar term date日子，那天发生的事件，想必大家还记的吧？Anyway，我的意思是不要嘲笑Gann Theory，任何理论都有他独到的地方，我会逐步把他们综合在一起，希望可以把报告的准确性提高一个层次。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: 05/06 LOW WILL BE BROKEN BUT NO EVIDENCE SAYS THIS IS A START OF A NEW BEAR MARKET

 

中期，维持roller caster的forecast。既使是新的一轮熊市又开始了，毕竟从March 2009以来的upward push非常strong，因此一般规律，牛牛不会就这么简单的surrender without a fight，所以多半04/26 high附近还是会被retest的，并且new high的可能性很高，如果到那时，breadth无法new high，从而形成negative divergence，那才可能是真正的top。So for now we’re far from calling an ultimate top yet。

 

下面是follow up 04/30 Market Recap里提到的weekly Bearish Engulfing， 现在基本可以排除是95年weekly Bearish Engulfing的case了，剩下的应该看得很清楚此后都发生了什么，not牛牛friendly，很明显。

 

 

上面图里的Blue bar是weekly Bearish Engulfing以后，next week又red的case。可能有同学有兴趣，所以下面是对这4个case的放大图，可以看到follow through week的low最后都破了，换句话说，就是05/06的low很可能会破。另外顺便注意看，so far都是at least 2 leg down。

 

 

有同学comment说VIX 冲得太高，所以牛，下面的图highlight了最近几次VIX up more than 30% a day的情形。Again, the green bar lows (i.e. the 05/06 low) were all broken eventually。

 

 

 

WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: MORE BULLISH EXTREMES, SO STILL COULD SEE REBOUND SOON

 

短期，除了After Bell Quick Summary提到的Bullish Monday以及Seasonality的因素外，见上面的表格，又多了些Bullish Extremes，因此可能会有反弹。

 

T2116, percent of NYSE stocks 2 std dev below MA(40), way too high，以大牛市的标准看，这个已经是record high了。

 

 

6.1.1b Extreme CPC Readings Watch, CPC >= 1.01, 78% chances a green day the next day.

 

 

8.1.0 Normalized NYTV，NYSE total volume too high可能意味着capitulation，因此往往是底部的特征(see green lines)。

 

 

0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator,  way too oversold, in fact it’s the 2nd record low in NYMO history (available from stockcharts). 当然，我在05/06 Market Recap里也提了，NYMO new low意味着SPX will have a new low ahead，通常只有在NYMO 形成positive divergence以后SPX才有可能bottom。8.2.6a Record NYSE McClellan Oscillator Readings 2001-2005 and 8.2.6b Record NYSE McClellan Oscillator Readings 2007-2009标出了过去NYMO record low时的情况，有兴趣的可以自己点击看看。

 

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萧秋水 发表于 2010-5-9 00:09

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回复 1# Cobra


    thanks

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