*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented. *DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals.
SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLISH
See 05/14 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: NO CONCLUSION, IN WAIT AND SEE MODE
0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals,SPY整了个Hammer,似乎比较bullish,不过by definition,今天不是reversal day,因为volume decreased。此外针的强度跟Feb 5不是一个级别的(shadow mostly buried means not much shake out of weak hands),因此market是不是bottom了,还不好说。
时间角度讲,如果SPX已经bottom了的话,那pullback的结束时间应该是05/06,这样total才8 trading day,而June 2009 and January 2010的pullback都至少持续了13 to 18 trading day。这次的pullback比前两次要大很多,8 trading day就完事了?这是个疑点。
Anyway,trading wise,不用想那么多,由于table above里的信号都是sell,所以目前重点考虑的应该还是sell bounce。
WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above. SHORT-TERM: DON’T RUSH INTO BULLISH CONCLUSION TOO SOON
1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min),4点说明:
- 今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提到了Diamond Bottom,target $117ish,这只是一种可能性。
- Diamond Bottom并不是绝对bullish pattern,也有continue向下的可能(31% chances),如果这样的话,target就是$109ish。
- 考虑到上面不远就是Fib 50% and January highs的resistance,因此明天盘中pullback形成Head and Shoulders Bottom的可能性也不小。
- 从图上可以看到,上面阻力不少都是multiple resistances confluences area,要牛到$117ish也不是那么容易。
所以,结论是,现在牛还为时尚早,鹿死谁手,尚未可知。
6.1.1b Extreme CPC Readings Watch,这个After Bell Quick Summary里忘了提了,CPC >= 1.01,77% chances a green day tomorrow。
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