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[技术分析] 05/17/2010 大盘回顾 (Not a Reversal Day by Definition)

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发表于 2010-5-17 07:05 PM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


  TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode
Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode
BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed?
0.1.3 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NADVN too high.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high.
BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Ascending Broadening Wedge? Target: 1008 to 1019.
CONCLUSION  
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU, RSP
ST Model 05/06 S 1.9xATR(10)
Reversal Bar    
NYMO Sell    
Non-Stop 05/11 S N/A For general direction guide only.
Others      
OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ DOWN SELL  
IWM DOWN SELL  
CHINA DOWN  
EMERGING DOWN SELL  
EUROPEAN DOWN SELL 4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54.
CANADA ? SELL  
BOND UP    
EURO DOWN SELL  
YEN ? BUY
GOLD UP   4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99.
GDX UP SELL  
OIL DOWN SELL
ENERGY DOWN SELL
FINANCIALS DOWN SELL
REITS UP SELL  
MATERIALS DOWN SELL  

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLISH

See 05/14 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: NO CONCLUSION, IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

 

0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals,SPY整了个Hammer,似乎比较bullish,不过by definition,今天不是reversal day,因为volume decreased。此外针的强度跟Feb 5不是一个级别的(shadow mostly buried means not much shake out of weak hands),因此market是不是bottom了,还不好说。

 

SPYShortTerm.png

 

时间角度讲,如果SPX已经bottom了的话,那pullback的结束时间应该是05/06,这样total才8 trading day,而June 2009 and January 2010的pullback都至少持续了13 to 18 trading day。这次的pullback比前两次要大很多,8 trading day就完事了?这是个疑点。

 

TradingDayWatch.png

 

Anyway,trading wise,不用想那么多,由于table above里的信号都是sell,所以目前重点考虑的应该还是sell bounce。


WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below.
Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: DON’T RUSH INTO BULLISH CONCLUSION TOO SOON

 

1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min),4点说明:

  1. 今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提到了Diamond Bottom,target $117ish,这只是一种可能性。
  2. Diamond Bottom并不是绝对bullish pattern,也有continue向下的可能(31% chances),如果这样的话,target就是$109ish。
  3. 考虑到上面不远就是Fib 50% and January highs的resistance,因此明天盘中pullback形成Head and Shoulders Bottom的可能性也不小。
  4. 从图上可以看到,上面阻力不少都是multiple resistances confluences area,要牛到$117ish也不是那么容易。

所以,结论是,现在牛还为时尚早,鹿死谁手,尚未可知。

 

SPY60min.png

 

6.1.1b Extreme CPC Readings Watch,这个After Bell Quick Summary里忘了提了,CPC >= 1.01,77% chances a green day tomorrow。

 

CPCWatch.png

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发表于 2010-5-17 07:07 PM | 显示全部楼层
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x3
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发表于 2010-5-17 07:13 PM | 显示全部楼层
Thanks.
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发表于 2010-5-17 07:13 PM | 显示全部楼层
3x
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发表于 2010-5-17 07:13 PM | 显示全部楼层
ding
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发表于 2010-5-17 07:14 PM | 显示全部楼层
居然搞上了一板凳
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发表于 2010-5-17 07:15 PM | 显示全部楼层
地铺
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发表于 2010-5-17 07:16 PM | 显示全部楼层
气死后来的
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发表于 2010-5-17 07:21 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-5-17 07:21 PM | 显示全部楼层
辛苦了,多谢!
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发表于 2010-5-17 07:24 PM | 显示全部楼层
白辛苦
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发表于 2010-5-17 07:25 PM | 显示全部楼层
thx, ding
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thanks
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