05/18/2010 大盘回顾 （Stick Sandwich?）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.3 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NADVN too high. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. *0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Ascending Broadening Wedge? Target: 1008 to 1019. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU, RSP ST Model 05/06 S 1.9xATR(10) Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop 05/11 S N/A For general direction guide only. Others *05/18 L Info only Long at close as 2 days cumulative RSI(2) <= 35. Winning rate: 88% OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN SELL   IWM DOWN SELL   CHINA DOWN *SELL EMERGING DOWN SELL   EUROPEAN DOWN SELL 4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. CANADA ? SELL   BOND UP     EURO DOWN SELL   YEN ? BUY GOLD UP   4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. GDX UP SELL   OIL DOWN SELL ENERGY DOWN SELL FINANCIALS DOWN SELL REITS UP SELL   MATERIALS DOWN SELL

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLISH

See 05/14 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019, COULD LAST TO 05/23 AT LEAST

 

既然昨天讲的Diamond Bottom or Head and Shoulders Bottom都不成立，那就暂时维持the previous forecast below:

1. 05/06 low may be broken but no evidence says this is a start of a new bear market. See 05/07 Market Recap for more details.
2. The pullback could last to 05/23 at least. See 05/10 Market Recap for more details.
3. The pullback target could be around 1008 to 1019 area. See 05/14 Market Recap for more details.

不过，严格的讲，今天的After Bell Quick Summary里也提了，不能排除形成Double Bottom的可能，所以其实方向未定，要看明天。只是因为table above的主要signal (SPY ST Model and Non-Stop) 都是sell，因此在没有充分的证据证明market bottom之前，暂时维持bearish bias (innocent until proven guilty)。此外，从0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals看，可能是Stick Sandwich，这样bearish continuation 62% of the time，因此也对熊熊有利。

 

WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: WATCH MA(200)

 

这个，在看下面的内容之前，请把上面的WARNING and how to use the table above看清楚。我只是provide info only，不是暗示可以这么trade哈。

 

先说结论：如果Intraday Cumulative Tick没错的话，明天可能不好玩，不过如果SPY能close above MA(200)的话，statistically，至少很快会有短期反弹。

 

Intraday Cumulative Tick from sentimentrader，我在今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提了，我怀疑是数据错误。不过in case数据没错的话，短期可能不怎么牛牛friendly。前5次我提及类似的cumulative tick skyrocket high的时候，是在05/13 Market Recap, 05/03 Market Recap, 04/29 Market Recap, 04/20 Market Recap and 04/14 Market Recap里。

 

 

根据TradingMarkets的2 day cumulative RSI(2) strategy (see table above)，今天should long SPY at close。注意过去绿棒棒(Not all are 2 day cumulative RSI(2) strategy, but mostly similar)以后发生的事情，plus下面的粉色线–percent of SPX stocks 2 std dev below MA50 is a little bit too high，因此这个short-term的trading setup还是有一定的可行性的，特别是如果明天还能形成一根绿棒(anther strategy, which if triggered, I’ll mention tomorrow)并且hold above MA(200) (Must close above MA(200) otherwise the setup is invalid) 的话，那么，statistically短期反弹的可能性还是挺大的。

 

 

ByStander

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wangbin

second

yuliang

终于等到了老大的报告！
谢了

hannah

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songjiang

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shoujie

mengtt

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hillcrest

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Alchemist

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surya

Thx!

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navybean

Ding.