05/19/2010 大盘回顾 （Bottomed?）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 3 of 6 are OVERSOLD SPY ST Model is in SELL mode

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.3 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NADVN too high. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold. *0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC MA(5) too high. *0.2.6 NYSE - Issues Advancing: Oversold. *8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Bottomed? BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Ascending Broadening Wedge? Target: 1008 to 1019. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU, RSP ST Model 05/06 S *Breakeven *Adjust stop loss. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop 05/11 S N/A For general direction guide only. Others 05/18 L *05/19 L Info only Long at close as 2 days cumulative RSI(2) <= 35. Winning rate: 88% Long at close as 3 days cumulative RSI(2) <= 45. Winning rate: 79% OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN SELL   IWM DOWN SELL   CHINA DOWN SELL EMERGING DOWN SELL   EUROPEAN DOWN SELL 4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. CANADA ? SELL   BOND UP     EURO DOWN     YEN ? BUY GOLD UP   4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. GDX UP SELL   OIL DOWN   ENERGY DOWN SELL FINANCIALS DOWN SELL REITS UP SELL   MATERIALS DOWN SELL

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLISH

See 05/14 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MINIMUM PULLBACK TIME TARGET COULD BE REACHED

 

今天是不是底，我不知道，不过从时间和信号的角度看，至少短期对牛牛有利。Trading wise，buy dip should be for aggressive traders only。在SPY ST Model and Non-Stop Model都是sell的情况下，比较保险的做法还是sell bounce。

 

先说时间，05/07 Market Recap提到了三个理由，推断the pullback could last to 05/23。

1. Multiple Gann Days due on 05/19 to 05/22.
2. 05/21 is an important solar term date.
3. Minimum pullback time could last 13 to 18 trading days.

今天是05/19，已经进入了Gann Days的范围，因此目前这个时间段的任何一天都可能是bottom。Trading day wise，今天是第17个trading day了，也基本符合13 to 18 trading days的范围了。

 

 

从信号看，见table above，今天又增加了几个牛牛friendly的信号。

 

0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch，见绿色虚线，当CPCI，CPCE，CPC同时很高的时候，很可能是底部（当然图上的case太少，所以你要当个笑话看，我也没意见）。

 

 

8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV，见绿色竖线，Nasdaq volume小于NYSE volume很多的时候，表示大家都不敢要beta stock了，这是过分fear的特征，因此往往意味着底部。

 

 

0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator，NYMO oversold是很reliable的信号。 

 

 

0.2.6 NYSE - Issues Advancing，NYADV oversold也是很reliable的信号。当然这个图里，熊熊有点希望，不过不是绝对每次都要positive divergence以后才能bottom的，因此熊熊最好不要指望这个。

 

 

下面的图，昨天(05/18 Market Recap)讲了TradingMarkets 2 day cumulative RSI(2) strategy，特别提到了今天如果测试MA(200) held，并且再次触发2 day cumulative RSI(2) buy的话，至少statistically，chances are very good that we may see at least a short-term rebound very soon。

 

WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: NO UPDATE

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回复 1# Cobra


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