05/21/2010 大盘回顾 （Backward while Accelerating Forward）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 4 of 6 are OVERSOLD SPY ST Model is in SELL mode

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC MA(5) too high. 0.2.6 NYSE - Issues Advancing: Oversold. 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Bottomed? 0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily): More than 20% above MA(10) 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: Bottomed? T2116 new high. 05/20 Market Recap: Intermediate-term Indicator Score from sentimentrader is too low. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Ascending Broadening Wedge? Target: 1008 to 1019. 6.4.1 Extreme NYADV Readings Watch: Lower close ahead. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Lower low ahead. 0.2.6 NYSE - Issues Advancing: Lower low ahead. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Extremely high CPCI means top? CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU, RSP ST Model 05/06 S *Covered on 05/21 at close with gains. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop 05/11 S N/A For general direction guide only. Others       OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN     IWM DOWN SELL   CHINA DOWN *BUY *Bullish reversal bar, could rebound. EMERGING DOWN   Bearish 1-2-3 formation breakdown, target: $32.13 EUROPEAN DOWN   4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. CANADA DOWN   BOND UP *SELL *Black bar, could pullback. EURO DOWN     YEN UP BUY GOLD UP   4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. *Hollow red bar, rebound? GDX UP   *Bullish reversal bar, could rebound. OIL DOWN   ENERGY DOWN   FINANCIALS DOWN   Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target: $12.99 REITS DOWN   Head and Shoulders Top? Target: $42.62 MATERIALS DOWN

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals.

SEASONALITY: THE LAST TRADING WEEK OF MONTH WAS BEARISH SINCE AUG 2009 

 

下周是五月的最后一个交易周(Market closed on 05/31 Memorial Day) ，根据6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch，自2009年八月以来，似乎每个月的最后一周都比较bearish。

 

 

4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly)，正好weekly Stick Sandwich (Unlike common believes, Stick Sandwich means bearish continuation 62% of the times, it’s not a bullish reversal pattern)，也是说bearish the next week。

 

 

6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch，下周seasonality的另一个规律是，最后两个交易日都比较bearish。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MAINTIAN PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019

 

先说结论：

1. 中期见底的可能比较小，所以继续维持pullback target around 1008 to 1019 (see 05/14 Market Recap for more details)。
2. 是否会very very bullish Monday again，很难说，因此要看下周二，所以现在只能说不能排除短期大反弹的可能。
3. 周五的Reversal，算是05/19 to 05/22的时间窗口(see 05/07 Market Recap for more details) forecast has been fulfilled。下一个可能的时间窗口是06/05 to 06/06。至于这个时间窗口是top还是bottom，现在还无法知道。如果下周有follow through证明周五的reversal 是bottom的话，那么反弹有可能会持续到06/06，如果下周继续跌的话，那可能跌势会持续到06/06。

为什么说中期见底的可能性比较小呢？下面的图自己看，大意是正在加速向前的汽车，不减速就突然变成倒车的可能很小(well, physically it’s impossible at least on the planet earth)，所以暂时维持table above里的lower low and lower close ahead的bearish signal。

 

 

6.4.1 Extreme NYADV Readings Watch，这个图我05/20 Market Recap里讲过，expect SPX lower CLOSE ahead。现在再仔细看，蓝圈圈，strong down day以后的第二天发生strong bullish reversal的几率非常非常高，所以周五的reversal so far符合过去的pattern，因此是否是真正的reversal，很难说，至少从这个图上看，几率并不高。

 

 

为什么下一个时间窗口是06/05 to 06/06呢，multiple Gann Day plus 05/06发生了啥大家还都记得吧？06/06是05/06的30度。此外06/06是Solar Term date，也是常见的可能发生反转的日子。

 

 

4.1.9 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly)，也是说the first week of June可能发生反转。

 

 

WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: EXCEPT THE SEASONALITY, THE NEXT MONDAY DOES NOT HAVE MUCH BULLISH EDGE

 

先补充说明一下，应该都看到SPY ST Model Cover Short Signal的通知了吧？这只是说cover short，但是the SPY ST Model is sill in SELL mode，换句话说，就是还是要sell bounce。下面的图，蓝色棒棒，是过去SPY ST Model给出类似cover short signal的情况，大家可以看看，并不意味着绝对底部。

 

 

0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, and lots of other index daily charts，符合所有bottom的条件，所以首先必须承认，看起来牛牛很有希望。当然，关键是下周要有follow through。

 

 

那么下周是否会有follow through呢？至少目前看起来并不乐观，首先是上面提到的seasonality，不怎么牛牛友好。其次周一能否follow through，还有两个问题：

 

周五收盘的最后十分钟，SPY涨了0.81%，这并不是好现象，至少过去的统计数据Late-Day Market Surges说明这是overreaction，第二天跌的几率很大。

 

 

周五是Major Accumulation Day (NYSE Up Volume to NYSE Down Volume > 9)，下面是自2002年6月起，buy at close on a Major Accumulation Day then sell the next day’s close的数据统计。可以看到第二天，并不bullish，整体收益是负的。

 

 

下面的图是更特殊的例子，周五的Major Accumulation Day是紧接着周四的Major Distribution Day (NYSE Down Volume to NYSE Up Volume > 9)之后的，这种情况过去勉强只有4例。从图上看，第二天都red，此外Major Accumulation Day当天的low此后不久都被retest了。当然，你可以说case太少，不说明问题，well，我的任务只是提供information，怎样使用这些information，up to you。

 

 

综上所述，周五的reversal，使得牛牛终于看到了the light on the other side of the tunnel，但问题是how far still needed to go before completely out of the tunnel? 1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)应该提供了些rough idea，lots of resistances ahead – 05/07 low，price channel，multiple Fib confluences area and long term MMA (pink)，so是牛是熊，will have to wait and see。

 

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