*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented. *DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals.
SEASONALITY: THE LAST TRADING WEEK OF MONTH WAS BEARISH SINCE AUG 2009
See 05/21 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019, NEXT TIME WINDOW AROUND 06/06
See 05/21 Market Recap for more details.
WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above. SHORT-TERM: NEED SEE TOMORROW, BULLS STILL HAVE CHANCES
今天的下跌符合过去的pattern,所以算是符合05/21 Market Recap的预期:May not see very bullish Monday, need wait until Tuesday。
为什么说今天的下跌符合过去的pattern呢?
0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals,今天的情况跟02/08很相似,02/05 Friday bullish reversal,02/08也是red Monday,同样,上周五bullish reversal,今天是red Monday,因此明天如果绿的话,不能排除repeat 02/08的可能。
下面的图05/21 Market Recap里提到过,现在再仔细看看,Major Accumulation Day (NYSE Up Volume to NYSE Down Volume Ratio > 9)紧接着Major Distribution Day (NYSE Down Volume to NYSE Up Volume > 9),第二天无一例外,都是下跌的,所以今天的下跌,符合过去的pattern,明天才能看出来分歧,是牛还是熊。
可能有熊熊不能理解,明明SPY ST Model and Non-Stop Model都是SELL mode,有啥好担心的?Well,看看4.1.3 Volatility Index (Weekly),虽然还没有到Friday,因此目前的STO sell signal并没有确认,不过一旦确认weekly STO sell signal,看看红色虚线,既使2008年10月份的crash,这个信号也是工作的,因此熊熊要小心。
明天从目前看,尽管Futures目前红彤彤的,牛牛还是挺有机会的:
- 今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提到了VIX and SPX同时red,有77%的机会第二天绿。这个trick很reliable。
- 1.0.1 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min),可以看作是kiss channel goodbye,所以说明天是牛是熊,还不一定。
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