05/24/2010 大盘回顾 （Beware of a possible VIX weekly STO sell signa）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 4 of 6 are OVERSOLD SPY ST Model is in SELL mode

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC MA(5) too high. 0.2.6 NYSE - Issues Advancing: Oversold. 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Bottomed? 0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily): More than 20% above MA(10) 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: Bottomed? T2116 new high. 05/20 Market Recap: Intermediate-term Indicator Score from sentimentrader is too low. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Ascending Broadening Wedge? Target: 1008 to 1019. 6.4.1 Extreme NYADV Readings Watch: Lower close ahead. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Lower low ahead. 0.2.6 NYSE - Issues Advancing: Lower low ahead. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Extremely high CPCI means top? CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU, RSP ST Model Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop 05/11 S N/A For general direction guide only. Others       OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN     IWM DOWN     CHINA DOWN BUY *2 green bar in a row usually means more on the upside. EMERGING DOWN   Bearish 1-2-3 formation breakdown, target: $32.13 EUROPEAN DOWN   4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. CANADA DOWN   BOND UP SELL EURO DOWN   *ChiOsc is a little bit too high. YEN UP   GOLD UP   4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. *Morning Star? So more rebound? GDX UP   OIL DOWN   ENERGY DOWN   *Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target: $46.47 FINANCIALS DOWN   Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target: $12.99 REITS DOWN   Head and Shoulders Top? Target: $44.28 MATERIALS DOWN

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals.

SEASONALITY: THE LAST TRADING WEEK OF MONTH WAS BEARISH SINCE AUG 2009 

See 05/21 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019, NEXT TIME WINDOW AROUND 06/06

See 05/21 Market Recap for more details.

 

WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: NEED SEE TOMORROW, BULLS STILL HAVE CHANCES

 

今天的下跌符合过去的pattern，所以算是符合05/21 Market Recap的预期：May not see very bullish Monday, need wait until Tuesday。

 

为什么说今天的下跌符合过去的pattern呢？

 

0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，今天的情况跟02/08很相似，02/05 Friday bullish reversal，02/08也是red Monday，同样，上周五bullish reversal，今天是red Monday，因此明天如果绿的话，不能排除repeat 02/08的可能。

 

 

下面的图05/21 Market Recap里提到过，现在再仔细看看，Major Accumulation Day (NYSE Up Volume to NYSE Down Volume Ratio > 9)紧接着Major Distribution Day (NYSE Down Volume to NYSE Up Volume > 9)，第二天无一例外，都是下跌的，所以今天的下跌，符合过去的pattern，明天才能看出来分歧，是牛还是熊。

 

 

可能有熊熊不能理解，明明SPY ST Model and Non-Stop Model都是SELL mode，有啥好担心的？Well，看看4.1.3 Volatility Index (Weekly)，虽然还没有到Friday，因此目前的STO sell signal并没有确认，不过一旦确认weekly STO sell signal，看看红色虚线，既使2008年10月份的crash，这个信号也是工作的，因此熊熊要小心。

 

 

明天从目前看，尽管Futures目前红彤彤的，牛牛还是挺有机会的：

1. 今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提到了VIX and SPX同时red，有77%的机会第二天绿。这个trick很reliable。
2. 1.0.1 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)，可以看作是kiss channel goodbye，所以说明天是牛是熊，还不一定。

subprime

ding

maomi

bench thanks cobra LD!

globe

southware

首页

southware

javamood

floor

t-k

zeebra

1st page

wangbin

FIRST PAGE

Alchemist

google

K, 今天这么早

pangpang

多谢，分析的很好

learner2009

cartier

HTER

开小差

thx, ding

soulvirus

thx

oda

老大, 今天报告出的这么早?thanks

songjiang

Thanks a lot. Very earlier today.