05/26/2010 大盘回顾 （Not Bottomed, But...）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPC MA(5) too high. 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Bottomed?  6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: Bottomed? 05/20 Market Recap: Intermediate-term Indicator Score from sentimentrader is too low. 0.1.3 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NYDNV too high. *0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NYADV oversold. *8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Bottomed? *1.1.1 NYSE Composite Index Breadth Watch: Oversold. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Ascending Broadening Wedge? Target: 1008 to 1019. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU, RSP ST Model Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop 05/11 S N/A For general direction guide only. Others       OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN     IWM DOWN     CHINA DOWN BUY 2 green bar in a row usually means more on the upside. EMERGING DOWN   Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target: $32.13 EUROPEAN DOWN   4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. CANADA DOWN   TOADV MA(10) oversold. BOND UP   ChiOsc is way too low. EURO DOWN SELL ChiOsc is way too high. *6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: GLD black bar may mean UUP up tomorrow. YEN UP   GOLD UP   4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. GDX UP   OIL DOWN   ENERGY DOWN   Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target: $46.47 FINANCIALS DOWN   Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target: $12.99 REITS DOWN   Head and Shoulders Top? Target: $44.28 MATERIALS DOWN

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals.

SEASONALITY: THE LAST TRADING WEEK OF MONTH WAS BEARISH SINCE AUG 2009 

See 05/21 Market Recap for more details.

 

有很多同学问Memorial Day的seasonality，下面的图来自sentimentrader。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019, NEXT TIME WINDOW AROUND 06/06

See 05/21 Market Recap for more details.

 

WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: NOT BOTTOMED BUT MAY SEE REBOUND FIRST

 

今天的下跌实现了6.4.1 Extreme NYADV Readings Watch关于SPX will have a lower close ahead的预言，这样熊熊最后一道保险就没有了。那么market是否就此bottom了呢？我认为没有。1.1.1 NYSE Composite Index Breadth Watch上面的NYADV:NYDEC MA(10)今天new low，看看过去的表现，要么是绿色竖虚线的情况，短期反弹，但是此后还有一down leg，形成positive divergence后bottom，要么继续跌， 绿色竖实线的情况，直到跌破下面的绿色横虚线后bottom。

 

 

下面的图05/21 Market Recap里提过，arguing market was not bottomed，相信大家都觉得很有说服力而且也被证明是正确的。现在再跟过去的情况比较一下，问问自己，目前的1 day positive divergence是否意味着bottom？至少看起来机会不大，是吧？根据TA理论，Divergence要一定的时间跨度才可靠，所以一天的divergence多半不说明问题。

 

 

OK，看了上面两幅图，对还没有bottom的说法应该异议不大吧？那，现在回到1.1.1 NYSE Composite Index Breadth Watch的问题，到底是继续跌呢，还是先反弹后跌。我的猜测是继续跌的可能性大些。理由有三：

 

6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch，每个月的最后两天都bearish。

 

 

Intraday Cumulative TICK from sentimentrader，big WOW，虽然我现在已经不认为Cumulative TICK很高是too bullish的表现（而是some kind of changing in trading characters），不过so far前六次WOW都工作了(see 05/18 Market Recap, 05/12 Market Recap, 05/03 Market Recap, 04/29 Market Recap, 04/20 Market Recap and 04/14 Market Recap)，所以我们不能否认这个信号这次还会工作的可能性。

 

 

0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，今天很多index and sector的daily图都不好看，open high close in red，是bearish reversal day，VIX的图特别突出，看着很象是05/13的Hammer，因此牛牛要小心。

 

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