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| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU, RSP |
| ST Model |
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Last trade: Shorted at 05/06 close, covered at 05/21 close with gains. |
| Reversal Bar |
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| NYMO Sell |
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| Non-Stop |
05/11 S |
N/A |
*Might be a good idea to take partial profits here. |
| Others |
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| OTHER ETFs |
TREND |
*DTFMS |
COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. |
| QQQQ |
DOWN |
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| IWM |
DOWN |
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| CHINA |
DOWN |
BUY |
2 green bar in a row usually means more on the upside. |
| EMERGING |
DOWN |
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Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target: $32.13 |
| EUROPEAN |
DOWN |
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4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. |
| CANADA |
DOWN |
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| BOND |
UP |
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ChiOsc is way too low. |
| EURO |
DOWN |
SELL |
ChiOsc is way too high. |
| YEN |
UP |
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| GOLD |
UP |
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4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. |
| GDX |
UP |
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| OIL |
DOWN |
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| ENERGY |
DOWN |
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Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target: $46.47 |
| FINANCIALS |
DOWN |
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Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target: $12.99 |
| REITS |
DOWN |
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| MATERIALS |
DOWN |
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*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals.
SEASONALITY: THE LAST TRADING WEEK OF MONTH WAS BEARISH SINCE AUG 2009
See 05/21 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019, NEXT TIME WINDOW AROUND 06/06
昨天的报告提到了1.1.1 NYSE Composite Index Breadth Watch，讲了两种可能(see 05/26 Market Recap for more details)，一是立即反弹（此后还有一跌），二是继续跌几天到底。看起来今天market选择了立即反弹。由于positive divergence is still missing，所以目前还不能排除one more leg down的可能，因此中期暂时还是维持1008 to 1019的target (See 05/21 Market Recap for more details)。
0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals，follow Non-Stop model的，不知道还记不记得？如果仅仅简单的follow buy/sell signal，这个model只有48%的winning rate，但是如果中途能套利的话，这个model的winning rate就可以有70%。看下面的图，这是个简单的套利判断方法，破了trend line，如果还没套过利的话，这里应该找机会套利了，never turn a profit into a loss。
WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: COULD REBOUND TO AROUND 06/06 (+-), SPY TARGET AROUND $114.40
6.3.1 Major Accumulation Day Watch，今天又多了个bottom signal，2 Major Accumulation Day (NYSE Up Volume to NYSE Down Volume > 9) within 5 days，见绿色虚线，无一例外，此后都有很不错的涨幅。这个signal我很看重，加上table above里已经累积了相当多的bottom signal，因此看起来，至少短期已经bottom的机会很大。当然，跟过去很多次都不一样的是下面的NYMO positive divergence still missing。关于这个，上面中期分析里已经讲了，不能排除还有one more down leg的可能，只是短期暂时可以先不管这个。
如果indeed短期已经bottom了，那么反弹的target可能是SPY $114.40，时间则可能延续到06/06。操作上，今天的After Bell Quick Summary里已经讲了，由于table above里的short-term and intermediate-term还都是sell signal，因此还是应该以sell bounce为主，但是要非常非常小心。
1.0.1 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)，这是估算target的主要理由，Head and Shoulders Bottom，text book target around $114.40，有74%的机会达到target。
关于时间，在05/21 Market Recap里，我提到了next time window is around 06/06，从下面的图看，至少up swing应该还有3 trading days，这样就是到06/03的样子，大致也算接近06/06这个日期，所以维持06/06 time window的forecast。目前看起来，market可能涨到06/06附近。
Intraday Cumulative TICK from sentimentrader，record WOW today！这个问题怎么解释，我实在编不出来了，如果重复过去6次WOW的情况的话，(See 05/18 Market Recap, 05/12 Market Recap, 05/03 Market Recap, 04/29 Market Recap, 04/20 Market Recap and 04/14 Market Recap)，应该是要有big pullback的。Personally，我始终认为这只是巧合而已，这个图并不说明people are way too bullish所以要有大的pullback。Well, we’ll see.
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-5-27 06:52 PM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
发表于 2010-5-27 06:53 PM
来晚了！
发表于 2010-5-27 07:11 PM