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| SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU, RSP |
| ST Model |
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Last trade: Shorted at 05/06 close, covered at 05/21 close with gains. |
| Reversal Bar |
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| NYMO Sell |
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| Non-Stop |
05/11 S |
N/A |
*Partial profit on 05/28. |
| Others |
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| OTHER ETFs |
TREND |
*DTFMS |
COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. |
| QQQQ |
DOWN |
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| IWM |
DOWN |
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| CHINA |
DOWN |
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*Bearish reversal bar rejected at MA(20), be careful, could rest the low. |
| EMERGING |
DOWN |
*BUY |
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| EUROPEAN |
DOWN |
*BUY |
4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. *The price is now too low below MA(200) though. |
| CANADA |
DOWN |
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*Bearish reversal bar rejected at important MA, be careful. |
| BOND |
UP |
SELL |
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| EURO |
DOWN |
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*Breakout trend line then pullback to test the low then rebound, bottomed? |
| GOLD |
UP |
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4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. |
| GDX |
UP |
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| OIL |
DOWN |
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| ENERGY |
DOWN |
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*potential bearish 1-2-3 formation setup triggered, target $50.51. |
| FINANCIALS |
DOWN |
*BUY |
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| REITS |
DOWN |
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| MATERIALS |
DOWN |
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*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.
先说题外话。我取消了我public chart list里的60 min/daily/weekly/moon cycle chart，因为stockcharts的cycle tool维护起来不方便，且无法用calendar day。今后将用专门的软件做time analysis (Screenshot below to tell you that I’m very serious in time analysis as it’s just one piece of my many time analysis charts)。为了大家查询方便，我在上面的table里增加了有关time的栏目，这样带来的额外好处是，如果从不同角度推断出来的时间点碰巧都吻合的话，可以用加亮的方式显示。比如现在，很明显，06/06(+-)有多处重合，这样就很convincing ，这一时间点前后非常重要。
SEASONALITY: THE FIRST TRADING DAY IN JUNE IS BULLISH AND THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEK IS BULLISH
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the first trading day in June, Dow up 9 of last 11.
下面的图来自Bespoke，看起来下周(Memorial Day week)，比较bullish。
下面的图还是来自Bespoke ，June has been the 2nd worst month of the year over the last 20 years。
The June seasonality chart below is from sentimentrader.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: MAIN PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019, II SURVEY MAY MEAN A HUGE REBOUND AHEAD
I will temporarily maintain the intermediate-term target around 1008 to 1019 (See 05/21 Market Recap for more details). 为什么说temporarily呢？因为下面最新的II Survey又是too many people are expecting a correction。不知道大家还记得不？一月的correction，也是因为II看correction的人太多，所以我推测可能会有大反弹，甚至新高，然后才是真正的correction。结果证明这个II correction的pattern很灵(see red vertical lines)。这次，又来了，那么，会不会又是意味着big rebound ahead甚至新高呢？I have no idea，我只是让诸位知道，有这么个可能性，特别是table above里有那么多bottom signal，因此这种可能性还不小。
操作上，由于SPY ST Model and Non-Stop Model 还都是sell mode，因此目前还是应该sell the bounce。不过，现在既然知道有huge rebound的可能，那sell bounce的时候就不应该太aggressive。Personally，我只有在第一单盈利的情况下，才会考虑第二单，absolutely no average down，这样如果sell bounce错了，不至于损失很大。
WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: COULD REBOUND TO AROUND 06/06 (+-), SPY TARGET $114.40
短期还是看反弹，maintain 05/27 Market Recap提到的time and target。下面的图是从Fib confluences area的角度计算出来的可能target，target 2也符合SPY $114.40的预期，trading day也才3天，还有时间。
看反弹的理由有七：
1. Seasonality session已经提了，the first trading day in June and the Memorial day week都bullish。
2. Table above里已经无数bottom信号了。这些信号都是久经考验的无产阶级战士，是我淘汰了无数信号后残存下来的不多的几个很reliable的信号。
3. 1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), as mentioned in 05/28 After Bell Quick Summary, could be a Bull Flag in the forming。
4. 0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，已经连着3次白棒棒大于红棒棒了。在牛牛大白棒棒反攻后，第二天熊熊的红棒棒无法完全收复前一天的失地。明显的牛牛stronger than熊熊。此外，一般规律，the market often makes 2 attempts to do something. If it fails 2 times (05/21 and 05/25), it often does the opposite ，所以05/25以后market rebound了。现在如果要反转向下的话，同样也会try 2次breakout先，05/27如果看作try的第一次的话，牛牛应该还会有try第二次，因此至少05/27的high会被retest。
5. 我在05/24 Market Recap中提到过，beware of VIX weekly STO sell signal。现在STO sell已经confirm了，见红虚线，既使2008 crash的时候，这个信号也是工作的。
6. 3.1.0 Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE Daily)，欧元是典型的breakout then pullback to test the previous bear extreme then rebound，这是个potential long setup，因此欧元可能会反弹，这对大盘有利。
7. 有空可以看看下面的weekly chart，很多Hammer, means bullish reversal 60% of the time: 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly), 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly), 4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly), 3.4.1 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily), 3.4.2 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Daily).
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发表于 2010-5-29 11:10 PM
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