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发表于 2010-6-4 10:12 AM
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GS 报告支持一下:
Investor sentiment is pessimistic today, this can be an important contrary barometer to the likely direction of the market. Unlike the relatively bullish sentiment and investor flows that prevailed throughout much of 2007, today’s investors remain highly skeptical. To wit, the recent American Association of Individual Investors survey revealed almost 2 bears for every bull, a reading in the 92nd percentile historically. Moreover, according to Lipper FMI, investors pulled $5.3 billion from equity mutual funds during the past week (the largest outflow since March 2009) and withdrew $16.7 billion including ETFs (the largest outflow since at least the summer of 2002). Because major market tops typically occur when investors are bullish and fully invested, the prevailing negative sentiment is a positive contrarian factor.
In short, there are enough material differences between today and 2008 to make a repeat of that crisis unlikely. Of course, we recognize that market sentiment remains fragile and that negative perceptions can quickly become reality. Market sentiment does, however, work both ways, as a more optimistic shift can also lead to a sharp rally, as we have seen at times in recent weeks. |
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