06/04/2010 大盘回顾 （Evening Star）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 06/11-06/14 06/12 /06/21 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 06/11-06/14.

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Bottomed?  6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: Bottomed? 05/20 Market Recap: Intermediate-term Indicator Score from sentimentrader is too low. 6.3.1 Major Accumulation Day Watch: Bottomed? 05/28 Market Recap: II survey shows too many people are expecting a correction. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Ascending Broadening Wedge? Target: 1008 to 1019. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Positive divergence missing, so one more down leg ahead? *6.4.1 Extreme NYADV Readings Watch: SPX lower close ahead. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model *06/04 S 1.9xATR(10) Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP) 05/11 S N/A Partial profit on 05/28. Others     OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN *SELL Ascending Broadening Wedge with partial rise? *Evening Star, bearish reversal 72% of the time. IWM DOWN SELL *Ascending Broadening Wedge with partial rise? CHINA DOWN EMERGING DOWN *SELL *4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): Double Top? EUROPEAN DOWN *SELL 4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. CANADA DOWN *Evening Star, bearish reversal 72% of the time. BOND UP *BUY *Morning Star, bullish reversal 78% of the time. EURO DOWN SELL *Descending Triangle breakdown, target $117.21. GOLD UP SELL 4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. GDX UP SELL OIL DOWN ENERGY DOWN FINANCIALS DOWN *SELL REITS DOWN SELL MATERIALS DOWN SELL *4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Double Top? Target: $23.37.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

SEASONALITY: A LITTLE BIT BEARISH BIASED THE NEXT WEEK

 

周五是worst ever NFP day since 1998，下面的图来自Bespoke，下周有一点点点点bearish biased。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019, TIME TARGET AROUND 06/11 TO 06/14

 

关于05/26 low是不是THE LOW，一直以来有个困惑，就是0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator missing positive divergence，而从过去的pattern看，无一例外，都是NYMO形成positive divergence后SPX才有可能bottom。周五的下跌，可能回答了这个困惑，就是这一次多半也不会例外，NYMO会先形成positive divergence，SPX才可能bottom。换句话说，就是05/26 low会破（这样NYMO 才可能形成positive divergence）。所以维持the pullback target around 1008 to 1019的forecast。Time target，则update to around 06/11 to 06/14 (if no miracle next Monday then the previous time window around 06/05 to 06/06 should be counted as fulfilled because the 06/03 cycle top is close enough)。

 

 

下面对上面的结论逐一解释证明。

 

为什么说05/26 low会破？三个理由：

 

0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，Evening Star，这个有72%的机会向下。

 

 

1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，Double Top，这个有73%的机会meet target。

 

 

6.4.1 Extreme NYADV Readings Watch，这个几乎guarantee SPX会有lower close ahead。

 

 

为什么说target could be around 1008 to 1019？见下面的图，多种角度推导出的target都集中在一个区域，因此这个区域是target的可能性很大。

1. Ascending Broadening Wedge text book target is 1019。
2. The Fib 38.2% of Oct 2007 high to Mar 2009 low is 1014. (see 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly))
3. The Fib 38.2% of April 2010 high to Mar 2009 low is 1008. (see 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly))
4. Assume the pullback starting from 06/03 is equal to Fib 61.8% of the April 26 high to May 6 low then the target is 1010.
5. Assume the pullback starting from 06/03 is equal to Fib 61.8% of the May 13 high to May 25 low then the target is 1023.
6. Double Top text book target is 1015.

 

为什么说time target is around 06/11 to 06/14呢？

 

还是看上面的图，见右上角，从April 26开始的correction，so far表现出来跌8天反弹5天的特性，那么如果这次还是跌8天的话，正好是06/14左右。

 

又从下面的Gann Day table可以看到06/11 to 06/14有multiple Gann Days due。此外whether you believe or not，06/12是new moon。

 

 

WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE HUGE REBOUND MONDAY BUT WILL SEE A LOWER SPX CLOSE AHEAD

 

周五的After Bell Quick Summary讲了2个理由，expect green Monday。这里还有第三个理由，图在上面intermediate-term session里已经贴过了，就是6.4.1 Extreme NYADV Readings Watch，虽然extreme low NYADV means a lower close ahead，不过，看蓝色圈圈，extreme low NYADV的第二天，大反弹的几率还是很高的。

 

jilier

Shafa!

jilier

太太激动了！~~
先抢了沙发再读班长的大作！

ROOKIE2

ding !!!

ROOKIE2

bandeng

aveda

地板

Billyboy

老蛇辛苦了。

joep

 
TREND INDICATOR
MOMENTUM INDICATOR
COMMENT (Click link to see chart)

Long ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-6-6 10:38

   

joep

joep 发表于 2010-6-6 10:50

   

joep

joep 发表于 2010-6-6 10:50

   

源济

IMeMyself

Thanks

happyface

thx, have a great weekend.

armorr

Thanks a lot!

palm

First page for a long while! 老蛇辛苦了。

NewMember

Thanks a lot.

songjiang

Great thanks so much

oda

thanks a lot

过山车

谢谢班长，first page?

福多多