*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented. *DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.
SEASONALITY: A LITTLE BIT BEARISH BIASED THE NEXT WEEK
周五是worst ever NFP day since 1998,下面的图来自Bespoke,下周有一点点点点bearish biased。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: PULLBACK TARGET AROUND 1008 TO 1019, TIME TARGET AROUND 06/11 TO 06/14
关于05/26 low是不是THE LOW,一直以来有个困惑,就是0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator missing positive divergence,而从过去的pattern看,无一例外,都是NYMO形成positive divergence后SPX才有可能bottom。周五的下跌,可能回答了这个困惑,就是这一次多半也不会例外,NYMO会先形成positive divergence,SPX才可能bottom。换句话说,就是05/26 low会破(这样NYMO 才可能形成positive divergence)。所以维持the pullback target around 1008 to 1019的forecast。Time target,则update to around 06/11 to 06/14 (if no miracle next Monday then the previous time window around 06/05 to 06/06 should be counted as fulfilled because the 06/03 cycle top is close enough)。
下面对上面的结论逐一解释证明。
为什么说05/26 low会破?三个理由:
0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals,Evening Star,这个有72%的机会向下。
1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min),Double Top,这个有73%的机会meet target。
6.4.1 Extreme NYADV Readings Watch,这个几乎guarantee SPX会有lower close ahead。
为什么说target could be around 1008 to 1019?见下面的图,多种角度推导出的target都集中在一个区域,因此这个区域是target的可能性很大。
- Ascending Broadening Wedge text book target is 1019。
- The Fib 38.2% of Oct 2007 high to Mar 2009 low is 1014. (see 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly))
- The Fib 38.2% of April 2010 high to Mar 2009 low is 1008. (see 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly))
- Assume the pullback starting from 06/03 is equal to Fib 61.8% of the April 26 high to May 6 low then the target is 1010.
- Assume the pullback starting from 06/03 is equal to Fib 61.8% of the May 13 high to May 25 low then the target is 1023.
- Double Top text book target is 1015.
为什么说time target is around 06/11 to 06/14呢?
还是看上面的图,见右上角,从April 26开始的correction,so far表现出来跌8天反弹5天的特性,那么如果这次还是跌8天的话,正好是06/14左右。
又从下面的Gann Day table可以看到06/11 to 06/14有multiple Gann Days due。此外whether you believe or not,06/12是new moon。
WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above. SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE HUGE REBOUND MONDAY BUT WILL SEE A LOWER SPX CLOSE AHEAD
周五的After Bell Quick Summary讲了2个理由,expect green Monday。这里还有第三个理由,图在上面intermediate-term session里已经贴过了,就是6.4.1 Extreme NYADV Readings Watch,虽然extreme low NYADV means a lower close ahead,不过,看蓝色圈圈,extreme low NYADV的第二天,大反弹的几率还是很高的。
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