06/17/2010 大盘回顾 （The 3rd Reversal Like Bar in 4 Days）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode Short-term 2 of 2 are BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 06/16-06/17 06/26 / 06/21 06/24, 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 06/24?

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. BEARISH CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model   *Covered short position entered on 06/04 with loss. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP)   N/A *Cover position entered on 05/11 then take a long position tomorrow or any time you think appropriate after tomorrow. Since the max drawdown was 8%, so even the model has no stop loss but you’d better use the 8% to calculate the max position size. For example, if you have $100,000 account, your max risk amount is 100,000 * 2% = 2,000, so 2,000 / 8% = 25,000, 25,000 / RSP price say $41.52, your max position size will be 602. OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP BUY IWM DOWN   Ascending Broadening Wedge, downward breakout 73% of the time. *2 reversal like bars in a row, doesn’t look good. CHINA DOWN EMERGING UP *BUY EUROPEAN UP *BUY   CANADA UP BUY 1.5.1 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Overbought. BOND UP   EURO DOWN BUY GOLD UP BUY 4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. *3.2.0 streetTRACKS Gold Trust Shares (GLD Daily): Ascending Triangle? GDX UP BUY OIL UP BUY ENERGY UP *BUY FINANCIALS DOWN *BUY REITS UP   MATERIALS DOWN   *2 reversal like bars in a row, doesn’t look good.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

SEASONALITY: A LITTLE BIT BULLISH ON JUNE TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK

See 06/11 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL REBOUND TARGET AROUND 1150 AND TIME TARGET AROUND 06/24

See 06/14 Market Recap for more details.

 

0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals，今天出buy信号了，因此应该cover short，同时反手long。注意position sizing，我都写在table above里了。Officially，Non-Stop model今天并没有触发，因为有参数优化的问题，但是使用0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals，我也visual back test过，see 8.2.2a Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals – 2004 to 8.2.2g Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals – 2010, 结果不坏。这个model是intermediate-term的，所以时间要求不需要很精确，明天就买，或者等个dip买，或者分几次买入，都可以。Again, for fun only, 专家眼里可能是垃圾，不过至少我花了很多时间，看看给出的visual back test的链接就知道了，完全免费share了。你觉得很不屑，请不要当着我的面跟我说，at least I deserve some respects for doing so much for nothing for so long。

 

 

SHORT-TERM: STILL NERVOUS ABOUT 3 REVERSAL LIKE BARS IN 4 DAYS, INTRADAY CHART LOOK BULLISH THOUGH

 

今天SPY又整了个reversal like bar，这样我昨天担心的问题(06/16 Market Recap)今天继续担心，3 reversal like bars in 4 days，多少意味着点什么吧？特别是今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提到了SPY up while TNX down 2.8%，明天有65%的机会red，而下周according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after June Triple Witching, Dow down 10 in a row and 17 of last 19。此外，有多少人注意了table above的Gann Day已经update成06/16-06/17了？我还有其他的理由相信06/17 could be a turning date，当然该理由还在观察中，暂时先不公开。

 

 

下面是简单的back test，starting from 2000，RSI(2) > 70 plus back to back hollow red bar and solid black bar (whichever come first doesn’t matter) like we have today on SPY and IWM daily chart, short at today’s close, cover 4 days later at close, 对于IWM居然Gain Loss Ratio是19.9。当然，SPY的back test结果就远远不如IWM了，不过，至少不牛牛友好。

 

 

6.4.6a QQQQ Black Bar Watch, I’m really glad that someone still remember the QQQQ black bar, 下面的图是what happened after QQQQ black bar recently。

 

 

The bottom line，trend is up，特别是1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，SPY intraday图看着很bullish，Double Bottom neckline being tested and held well，并且我最看重的是盘整了2天，形成了一个launch base，因此非常可能从这里一飞冲天，next target，see intermediate-term session above，1150ish。上面提到的我担心的事情只是risk factor，用来控制position size，正如06/16 Market Recap里说的，我不sure是否我们正处于一个从底部强烈反弹的阶段，因此可以忽略一切bearish的信号。

 

 

leftright

darren168

2nd

gardener2000

ban den

fara

ding U.

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


    thanks

mikeqc

7th

H@T

福多多

try_again

1st page

cartier

atrader

thanks

Fan8an

thanks

tonyshen

ding

oldfox

fara

顶呀，为什么不说话！

源济

源济

“因此非常可能从这里一飞冲天，next target，see intermediate-term session above，1050ish。”

1050ish? typo?

萧秋水

辛苦了,多谢!

wnd4

thanks