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Another Sucker's Rally?
Yesterday we had a sucker's rally. Today we got an explosive rally. Could it be another sucker's rally? Let's look at the intermediate-term trend chart. There are three rally attempts since this downtrend started on May. Because the flash crash is so controversial, let's just focus on second and third. The second rally attempt topped at Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, the third topped at Fibonacci 50% retracement. Today's big rally put S&P between Fib 38.2% 1056 and Fib 50% 1071. If S&P rallies above 1071, we should have a good chance to see 1100. If S&P tops here, we should see a new low around 986.
VIX (S&P 500 volatility index): 26.84
VIX futures
July: 27.65
August: 30.05
September: 32.30
October: 33.05
November: 32.80
December: 32.05
January 2011: 32.90
VIX futures contango indicates intermediate term and long term bearish view. |
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