07/07/2010 大盘回顾 （Speculation about the Rebound Price and Time Target）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 1 of 2 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 07/07-07/11 07/11 / 07/07 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 07/07-07/11

BULLISH BEARISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top plus Bearish Engulfing, target 861. *T2105 is close to its May high which usually means a top.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 07/01 S 1.9xATR(10) May not be a good timing, so be careful. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP) 06/30 S N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: JULY IS THE BEST PERFORMING DOW AND S&P MONTH OF THE 3RD QUARTER

See 07/02 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: REBOUND (IF ANY) THEN MOST LIKELY THERE’LL BE A 2ND LEG DOWN

See 07/02 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: INITIAL TARGET 1075ISH, TIME TARGET AROUND 07/12

 

反弹结束了没有？很大可能没有。因为反弹的幅度和时间都还不够。

 

先看幅度。见下图，蓝线是最近3波主要下跌的幅度，可以看到，从154到133再到120，下跌的动能在逐步减小，因此有理由相信，这次反弹的幅度应该大于前三次反弹的幅度。最差最差也该跟前三次反弹中最小的那个幅度相当吧？见黑线，最小的一次反弹是64点，而我们现在总共反弹了49点，所以应该还有点上升的空间，对吧？

 

 

再看时间。见下图顶上的红圈圈，前三次反弹历时最短的也是5 trading days，而我们目前的反弹才持续3 trading day，因此，至少还有2 more days，是吧？

 

 

以上综合起来，加上multiple Fib confluences area，这样最保守的反弹target应该是1075ish，时间则维持我一直说的07/07 to 07/11，因为07/11是周末，所以可能是07/12的样子。下面的图，07/02 Market Recap里提过，还没有忘吧？SPX表现出惊人的对称性，因此下一个重要的时间点应该是07/12附近。

 

 

最后再提醒一下接下来几天的seasonality，都比较bullish。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

	TREND	*DTFMS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN		4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	DOWN		Ascending Broadening Wedge, target $54.97.
CHINA	DOWN
EMERGING	UP
EUROPEAN	UP		4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45.
CANADA	DOWN		4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP
EURO	UP	BUY
GOLD	UP	SELL	4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. Be careful of the non-confirmation of SLV and GDX.
GDX	UP		4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX:$SPX is too high.
OIL	DOWN
ENERGY	DOWN		4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	DOWN		4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Sitting on very important support.
REITS	DOWN		4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS	DOWN		4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Double Top, target $23.27.

IMeMyself

Shafa

lwjnbtx

bandeng!

tortose

Thanks!

tortose

Floor

t-k

开小差

thx, ding

songjiang

thanks Lao Da

ranchgirl

Thanks a lot!

hhli3

Thanks Cobra.

How can I post new topic?
It always complains about not-selecting relevant category. But the category window flashes and then disappears.

happyface

每天给你胡币就算友情支持吧,虽然知道你不缺钱.

outer

dreampen

thanks

rosyrosy

Diver

 
TREND INDICATOR
MOMENTUM INDICATOR
COMMENT (Click link to see chart)

Long ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-7-7 20:52

xnz

thanks

Cobra

Thanks Cobra.

How can I post new topic?
It always complains about not-selecting relevant catego ...
hhli3 发表于 2010-7-7 21:02

    你用的是FireFox，版本太高，你要用低版本的，或者其他browser，或者把你现在的FireFox的JavaScript选项turn off。

Cobra

每天给你胡币就算友情支持吧,虽然知道你不缺钱.
happyface 发表于 2010-7-7 21:03

    ，每天都能坚持给也不容易啊。

hhli3

回复 17# Cobra
You are super. Thanks.
I tried internet explore and don't have this issue.
Good night.

sunnysunny