Google Android的Market Share又涨了

dividend_growth

http://www.comscore.com/Press_Ev ... criber_Market_Share

Smartphone Platform Market Share
49.1 million people in the U.S. owned smartphones during the three months ending in May, up 8.1 percent from the corresponding February period. RIM was the leading mobile smartphone platform in the U.S. with 41.7 percent share of U.S. smartphone subscribers, followed by Apple with 24.4 percent share and Microsoft with 13.2 percent. Google saw significant growth during the period, up 4.0 percentage points to capture 13.0 percent of smartphone subscribers, while Palm rounded out the top five with 4.8 percent. Despite losing share to Google Android, most smartphone platforms continue to gain subscribers as the smartphone market overall continues to grow.

数据没包括苹果iPhone 4，不过看AT&T那个焦头烂额的样子，果果扳回点market share不难，只是可怜了黑莓和微软。

智能手机的市场以后会比当年的P/C大多了，狗狗每台只须搞一点license fee和广告费，就等于坐在那收钱了。

dividend_growth

只要Steve还有一口气，狗狗就不可能占太多便宜。

但Steve这种control freak，下面的人一定是很那种俯首听命的料子。

俺就不信Tim Cook能怎样了不起！

-----------------

不过话说回来，狗狗和果果在智能手机远没到你死我活的地步，黑莓还是老大，揍这家伙应该不难。

babyruth

闹了半天果果只是老二. 谢谢分享.

dsp

Balckberry is junk. I hate my 8220. Will try HTC next time.

maldini

superxy

HTC VS Iphone4, which is better?

uddi

HTC VS Iphone4, which is better?
superxy 发表于 2010-7-8 08:45 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FL7yD-0pqZg

丛林法则

这个好像不对吧。应该是NOKIA的Symbion第一吧。不过NOKIA江河日下，不少symbion的同盟改投google.

alex68

这个好像不对吧。应该是NOKIA的Symbion第一吧。不过NOKIA江河日下，不少symbion的同盟改投google.
丛林法则 发表于 2010-7-9 02:45

In north America, Nokia has been intentionally marginalized. This is partially due to the fault of the top management of Nokia that have performed very poorly in recent years. Next 6 to 18 months will be very critical for Nokia to hit back as far as I know nokia in the next half year will release a handful of new products, such as N8 12 mega camera plus HDMI tv out, Linux based meego netbook which are mainly targeted cloud computing technology.

Nokia is also researching solar charger for phones. It has released phones with a bicycle charger.

alex68

About Nokia Symbian, I believed it is an obsolete technology. In about 1999, Nokia acquired this platform from UK. Before that Nokias had its own platforms for mobile phones. Symbian soon became industry standard for mobile industry. At that time hardware had limited resources as such memory and CPU capacity and Symibian made good sense for such cumbersome ideaology of architecture design at that time.  Symbian has had brought Nokia huge benefits and competitivity before. 10 years have passed the world has changed a lot but Nokia top management still believe in Symbian.  It is sad to see Symbian dying although I never liked Symbian and had never good faith in it being  one of the pilot Symbian engineer at Nokia in 1999...

Nokia should move on. I wish Nokia will make the move of meego linux big success for high end mobile devices. Time will tell and we will see...

alex68

Like many people, I have wondered why Nokia can not cooperate with Google.  Recently, there was an interview of one Nokia top management guy. When asked why Nokia did not use Android platform, the guy said Nokia believed Meego would bring Nokia much much more benefits like Symbian 10 years ago.

Actually Nokia started rewriting Linux kernel dated back as early as 2005. After my firm sold Ipsec toolkit business to one American firm in 2004,  two specialists of Ipesec toolkits moved to Nokia doing Linux kernel research.  Meego work has processed very slowly. Recently Nokia sees the urgency, I believe Android has waken up Nokia, of this open source platform for the competion in  the high end market, Meego work has started accelerating.  It is said Linux Meego based N9 will be released at the end of 2010.  Many people do not believe Nokia could pick up so soon. But according to my sources,  N9 shares large part of code base of N8 which be certainly released in Q3 and one of my friends who is an integration specialist is working on N9.  N9 will be relased at the end of 2010 or latest early 2011.

dividend_growth

Nokia的声誉已近完蛋了，这个世纪初Nokia是酷手机的代表，现在你问问年轻人，谁还敢拿Nokia出来炫耀？

你没有高档高利润的产品给你赚钱，你低档次的也会被对方挤垮，因为对方可以拿高档次赚来的利润跟你打价钱战！

同时，没有很好的利润，就没有钱搞研发，不能搞出有竞争力的产品，不能吸引行业里的高级人才，公司内部将被混饭的所代替（例子请看雅虎，微软，Dell, Motorola, Jobs回来前的苹果，以及过去领头的Compaq, DEC，Xerox等等），一个恶性循环将此开始；一旦高科技公司进入这个恶性循环，东山再起的可能性将非常小了。

根据Nokia这几年的表现，它的竞争能力已近相当差了。2004年Motorola进攻时它还能很快的做出反应，只落后了几个月就推出一系列出色的产品；而这次iPhone已近上市3年，尽然还拿不出对策来，可见Symbian OS被打垮只是一个时间问题了。

alex68

Nokia has 6 B cash, excluded debt already, and 11000 patents for mobile phones. Every mobile device  maker has to pay Nokia for sth, especialy for 3G tech. Now here in nordic countries, we are heading to 4G network. Nokia has  already been at the front end to make standards for 4g tech. Nokia siemens network has been working with Cisco on cloud computing tech for wireless environment for network carrier. Nokia mobile phones is also doing a lot of research and development in this field. Nokia has developed many new tech and products for emerging markets, like bike charger for mobile phones, a phone model with two sim cards and etc.

Nokia has not lost research and develpment ability yet and it is still profitable and has enough capital to finance the research and devleopment of its front end new products and technology.  The lose to Apple in the past 3 years  was maily due to arrogance of Symbian's  success and neglection of iphone success.  

In my opioin, Google doesn\t have the front end tech of telecommunication network and devices. Android platform can only be a market follower but not a leader.

I speculate that Nokia's meego  linux is meant to be the next standard for mobile devices like Symbian 10 years ago.

This should happen with 3-5 years. Time will tell...

dividend_growth

Nokia has 6 B cash, excluded debt already, and 11000 patents for mobile phones. Every mobile device  ...
alex68 发表于 2010-7-9 16:01

Apple手上有23B现金，加上18.5B的长期存款；

Google手上有$27B现金。

Nokia效仿Rambus，当个职业patent troll，以后还是能赚很多钱的。

Summerrose

google的策略是对的.
andriod好不好，先让手机制造商免费试一试。好，占领市场，打下江山。不好，在修补，反正免费是王道。
一但占领了市场，必然形成壁垒。好处多多：确保传统搜索业务；为将来进入手机市场打下基础。最重要的是，进一步巩固其在IT领域的比较优势。

alex68

Apple手上有23B现金，加上18.5B的长期存款；

Google手上有$27B现金。 ...
dividend_growth 发表于 2010-7-9 16:08

Remember the old widsom that money is not everything. It can buy sth, but can never buy everything. How much money you have now doesn't mean you will have more or the same in the future.

Apple has only one modle which is deemed not to be able to dominate mobile market. Google has given up the sales of its onw Nuxe phone which is a sign that google's mobile hardware attempt is not fruitful at all.

The future of Google's Android relies on if Nokia makes a big mistake in platforms. Otherwise, Android might become just another cash burner, at least not a money maker.  I have doubted Youtube can ever be a money maker either, but a cash burner!  Android market can vanish once Google starts collecting money from Android phone makers.  Everyone knows there is never a free lunch. Do you believe all mobile phone makers will move all the development to Android so that someday Android will dominate mobile phone platform market?  Simply Google can not easily copy the success story of search engine for mobile phone platform market as it is a different market and different market business model!

Apple will be a totally diferent story...

alex68

Nokia burnt a lot of cash to buy back its own shares. It has been given out  cash by issuing decent dividend.  Nokia should stop doing these two things to hoard cash for financing its reserch and development instead.

Summerrose

Nokia burnt a lot of cash to buy back its own shares. It has been given out  cash by issuing decent  ...
alex68 发表于 2010-7-9 16:31

1. Buyback stocks or dividends policy will affect stock price. However, the effect would be temporary if a company can't improve its competitive advantage. Because investors would doubt its sustainability.
2. A strong cash balance is an indicator of a company's strength. But we need to examine the trend. I don't know Nokia's cash balance is in an uptrend or a downtrend. A free cash flow analysis sometimes can reveal a company's trend in generating cash. I haven't done research on Nokia's financial statements. But as far as I know, Nokia faces stiff competition from Apple, RIM, MOT, and some new comers.
3. I guess you know the story of Gateway. It used to be a very successful company. After the tech bubble, it still had billions of dollar in the balance sheet. But it never came back because it never realize or couldn't gain competitive advantage.

alex68

1. Buyback stocks or dividends policy will affect stock price. However, the effect would be temp ...
Summerrose 发表于 2010-7-9 16:58

I don't believe Nokia will recover its market value at peak. It is not a fast growth company anymore, but it is not dying so soon either. Somehow I believe the current price level is  way too pessimistic。It might be a good value stock worthy investing in in a long term...

alex68

Another piece of info about Google Android. From a Finnish forum, I read following:

The next Android-version (3.x), the minimum requirement is a 1 GHz processor and a half G memory.

The analysis is: Android will become increasingly more resource hungry, especially when Android Apps rotate a virtual machine on. So Android requires more resources which increases the cost of the phone components.  No matter you believe it or not that Google's android will definitely face a big challenge when it grows in the future.

In this sense, Symbian better fits cheap-and medium-priced smartphones on the market.  This is the reason why Nokia is not going to abandon Symbian totally. It will have two platforms for smart phones, low and mid-end phones with symbian for compact resources of hardware, and high-end with meego linux.  This is very logical for Nokia's full  range of global mobile market, from high-end to low-end all phones markets.  I was a bit wrong about Symbian before.

Nokia's focus is a full range of a global level market, not a special niche of market segment. Surely, high end market is very important. Nokia should fight hard to win its shares back, if not all shares at least some.