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楼主: dividend_growth

[新闻] Google Android的Market Share又涨了

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发表于 2010-7-10 07:39 AM | 显示全部楼层


本帖最后由 alex68 于 2010-7-10 17:41 编辑

One more piece of info about Nokia's Meego, the smart phone soluations is QT+Meego for high end, QT+Symbian 3+ for low, medium priced smart phone.  If I remember correctly, QT was an open source for development environment created by Norwagian people, but Nokia has ACQUIRED it already. People in IT industry should know QT well, at least a few years ago many Windows GUI development started  moving to QT because of its many benefits such as better performances and UI automation testing etc...

Regarding Google's Android, I have heard that Android also uses QT. Open source GPL license is free ONLY FOR NON COMMERCIAL USE.  Yes, Nokia has a position in Android if  QT stays with Android, how it will play out is not certain yet though! Some people say Android is not entirely a fair game.  Google has many times promised its full release, but at least has not happened yet. Here some Finnish peole say the reason why Nokia did not choose Android is that Android is not really an open platform and Nokia doesn't want to be controlled by Google...

Copied from QT developer blog

The Qt toolkit is one of the pivotal points of Nokia’s future strategy as it will be the base of it’s MeeGo handheld user experience and also the umbrella that will unite Symbian and MeeGo from an application developer perspective in the future. We can see that this is no short term plan - it took quite some time to arrive here. Just to put things into perspective I included a few Android events. This should also make it clear how "new" the Android arrival is and how it hardly fits the Qt strategy on the platform level


In any case, seeing the timeline it is obvious that the Qt strategy was not a whim, it was a broad, consistent strategy. Qt has come a long way, it has been available to developers living on the mobile edge for well over a years (and two decades for those that are familiar with Qt from the desktop). It fought it’s way to actual devices and stable repositories (an install base of several million handsets via the Smart Installer and the N900 since PR1.2). Ovi now accepts Qt apps. The Nokia Qt SDK is released with the nifty QtCreator IDE largely reducing the pains of the powerful-but-linux-guru-oriented scratchbox environment of the Maemo SDK. The Qt API is a lot friendlier than the AVKON APIs or the generic rag-tag Linux APIs ever were. There are already thousands of developers (both FOSS and commercial) with a lot of previous Qt experience. Qt is touted as the future of all Nokia smartphones.
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发表于 2010-7-10 12:25 PM | 显示全部楼层
Some  info about QT

Qt (pronounced officially as "cute (KYOOT)" although commonly known also as "Q.T. (KYOO-TEE)")[3][4] is a cross-platform application development framework widely used for the development of GUI programs (in which case it is known as a widget toolkit), and also used for developing non-GUI programs such as console tools and servers. Qt is most notably used in Google Earth, KDE, Opera (before 10.60 version), OPIE, Skype, VLC media player and VirtualBox. It is produced by Nokia's Qt Development Frameworks division, which came into being after Nokia's acquisition of the Norwegian company Trolltech, the original producer of Qt, on June 17, 2008.[5]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qt_(framework)
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发表于 2010-7-10 12:28 PM | 显示全部楼层
Actually recently there was an article that one game made for Iphone running on Opera works surprising fine on an Nokia phone.  I don't remember the exact phone model number anymore.
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发表于 2010-7-10 12:41 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 alex68 于 2010-7-10 17:47 编辑

The qt was acquired in 2008 and now Nokia has done all the necessary porting, customization and integration on its platforms including Meego and symbian 3+. In the so-called  3 lost years, I believe Nokia has done a lot of platform development for next generation mobile devices. Now it is the time for the giant to roar again!  N8, N9 and more upcoming new products will tell soon...

When Nokia internally made the massive move for Symbian after year 2000, Nokia also experienced similar crisis for about 3-4 years like what is happening now. I have never had such strong faith in Nokia like now even when I worked for it before!

http://qt.nokia.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MeeGo
http://meego.gitorious.com/
http://europe.nokia.com/find-products/devices/nokia-n8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOgrFaiZ2TI&feature=related
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-7-10 07:29 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 dividend_growth 于 2010-7-10 21:30 编辑

跟你直接了当的说吧:Nokia现在没有啥像样的智能手机,请问哪里有人排队买Nokia手机,哪里有人炫耀自己的Nokia手机?

你那么多码子都没说到点子上去。

等有报道出来说很多人喜欢Nokia手机了,再买NOK也不迟。
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发表于 2010-7-10 10:05 PM | 显示全部楼层
一个公司的文化烂到根的话,靠技术是无法翻身的。现在的HP像极了以前的sun. 现在的nokia昨日黄花的迹象太明显了。
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-7-10 10:34 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 dividend_growth 于 2010-7-11 00:37 编辑
一个公司的文化烂到根的话,靠技术是无法翻身的。现在的HP像极了以前的sun. 现在的nokia昨日黄花的迹象太明 ...
胡同0110 发表于 2010-7-11 00:05



9494,什么mouse, GUI当年都是Xerox发明的,但却被那帮官僚给糟蹋了。今日的Nokia绝对强不过那时的Xerox.

HP能找到Mark Hurd这种顶级的MBA,算是大幸。同时也得亏底子厚,没给Fiorina这婊子整垮。

一般来说,职业MBA官僚是绝对搞不过白手打天下的:
IBM过去有多强(计算机市场的70%),后来被Bill Gates, Andy Grove等整得奄奄一息;
Bill Hewlett和David Packard在位时HP何其威风,70年的大熊市中公司股票翻了5倍,82年二老退役后,公司股票在80年代的大牛市中尽然是零回报!
K-Mart, Sears鼎盛时期有多强大,美国最高的建筑物就叫Sears Tower,但Sam Waltong一出现,白白!
Xerox咱们就不谈了,反正被Steve Jobs给玩死了;
HP的大傻逼Carly Fiorina被Michael Dell整整抽了4年嘴巴;
Michael Dell把事业转给职业MBA Kevin Rollins两年,Dell的声誉就给糟蹋了,现在还没缓过劲来;
Charles Schwab传位4年,公司给糟蹋了,2004年老Chuck回来后,公司业务又好了,股票也牛了;
Starbucks的Howard Schultz退居二线刚一年,势头就不行了,还好Schultz反应的块,把Starbucks从深渊里拉回来了;
Ebay的Omidyar不管事,让那个John Donovan把忠实客户都得罪了一圈,现在慢慢得被Amazon的Jeff Bezos逼近死角里了;
Bill Gates跑了,没命价的卖MSFT,等他卖完了,Google和Apple也要正式开始收拾微软了;
老巴的年份也不多了,他的继承人能保持个零回报就是成功;
Nokia的Jorma Ollila是个人才,但现在Olli-Pekka这家伙原来是CFO,也就是那种最典型的职业MBA官僚,corporate bean counter,这种烂人不干掉,没戏!

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发表于 2010-7-10 11:04 PM | 显示全部楼层
诺基亚在美国以外好象名声还不错,但现在确实给苹果和狗狗盖过了。而且
差距多半会拉大,而不是缩小,道理也简单,双拳难敌四手,特别是ANDROID,
刚发布时是丑小鸭,现在两年过去,ANDROID已经是个小白天鹅了,势头又极猛,
有消息说它的APP开发者已超过苹果。诺基亚光靠自己一家开发MEEGO,想赶上
领头羊很难。
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发表于 2010-7-11 06:50 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 alex68 于 2010-7-11 09:15 编辑

Info from IDC. IDC is considered as one of the most neutral IT media.

Top Five Smartphone Vendors Q1 2010,  07 May 2010

Nokia firmly maintained its position as the leading smartphone vendor worldwide during 1Q10. In addition to introducing several new models – the C3, C6, and the E5 – Nokia announced its first Symbian^3 model, the N8. This, and other Symbian^3 devices, are expected to launch in the fourth quarter of this year. According to CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Symbian^3 will be more intuitive and fun for end users, and on par with other competitive offerings available on the market.

Research In Motion kept its position as the number two smartphone vendor worldwide on continued growth of its popular BlackBerry devices. Key to its success were its BlackBerry Curve 8520 and BlackBerry Bold 9700, as well as stronger consumer adoption. Co-CEOs Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsillie recently unveiled the company's new BlackBerry OS 6.0, which promises a smoother and more interactive user interface.

Apple more than doubled its shipments from a year ago, with more iPhones arriving outside its home territory of North America. CEO Steve Jobs announced the latest operating system update, enabling multi-tasking, folders, enhanced email, iBooks for consumers, and iAd, a mobile advertising platform, for developers. A fourth generation iPhone is expected to arrive this summer.

HTC posted high double-digit growth to start off the year, driven primarily by its growing stable of Android-powered products including the Hero, Droid Eris, and MyTouch. The company shows no signs of slowing down, having announced several new devices, including the first WiMAX Android phone, the EVO 4G, slated to launch later this year. HTC also remains committed to Windows Mobile devices, with the HD2 receiving a warm reception and Windows Phone 7 devices expected to launch before the end of the year.

Motorola, having stormed back into the smartphone space in the fourth quarter of 2009, followed up with a new milestone in its short history of shipping Android devices. Now that the DROID and CLIQ (known as the Milestone and DEXT respectively outside the United States) both have a full quarter of availability, the company followed up with six additional devices. The company expects to launch 20 different models and ship 12–14 million Android smartphones this year.

Top Five Converged Mobile Device Vendors, Shipments, and Market Share, Q1 2010 (Units in Millions)

See figure from following link
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?se ... inerId=prUS22333410

When I find the developer info of mobile device platform, I will add it  later.
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发表于 2010-7-11 06:57 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 alex68 于 2010-7-11 14:04 编辑

Apple iPhone Owners Most Likely to Repeat Purchase
Browsing Experience Frustrates Majority of Mobile Phone Users

Boston, MA - March 9, 2010 – Apple iPhone owners are not only most satisfied with their phones, they are most likely to buy their next phone from Apple, as well, according to a recent study from Strategy Analytics, which found a strong correlation between satisfaction and repeat purchase intentions. This Wireless Device Lab report, “iPhone Owners Most Satisfied and Likely to Repeat Purchase,” analyzes satisfaction across 12 features, as well as repeat purchase intentions for leading mobile phone manufacturers. Other key findings include:

    * Over half of the device users surveyed are less than satisfied with their current web browsing experience;
    * Owners of 12-key keypad products in the US are least satisfied with the text input experience; and
    * In Western Europe, although LG owners indicate higher levels of satisfaction, that does not necessarily translate to higher levels of repeat purchase intention.


“In the US, respondents with full QWERTY keyboard or virtual keyboard are more satisfied than respondents who have a 12-key keypad for messaging applications,” commented Paul Brown, Director of User Experience Research at Strategy Analytics. “However, this is not the case in Western Europe, where satisfaction among 12-key keypad respondents for text input is also high.”

Kevin Nolan, Vice President at Strategy Analytics, added, “Apple respondents are frustrated by low battery life - one of the most important priorities for those purchasing a new mobile device. Apple needs to work on improving battery life to ensure that respondents follow through on their repeat purchase intentions.”

Source is http://www.strategyanalytics.com ... eViewer&a0=4870

According to AT&T, 77% customers of Iphone 4 were already owned Iphone cusotmers before. This also means Iphone 4  was not able to boost market share that MUCH as the seemingly promissing sales numbers ! -- A cold but true fact!

According to Apple's past performance of products, 10-15% is Apple's stable global market postion. Now Apple's phone is above the upper bound. I speculate the extreme share for Apple would be 20-25%. Remember Iphone weighs 40% Apple's revenues.

Iphone has launched for 3 years, in the openest nordic country Sweden, iphone's market share is still under about 8%. It is not about the price of Iphone. I can tell many reasons why...
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发表于 2010-7-11 07:37 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 alex68 于 2010-7-11 19:27 编辑

I have said very clearly the following 6 to 18 months are very critical for Nokia's game change. My faith and bet lie in the following,  I may have not yet told everything I know about.

1. Many new products especially high end products (N8/N9 etc) based on the new tech/platforms are coming on the way,  according to my personal sources.
In 2009, there ware two high-end products releases. N900 was too tech-oriented that many tech people really liked and enjoyed. N97 nimi was a total disaster due to not enough load of testing...   

2. I have provided plenty of sources about QT and Meego/Gitorious open source project (alliance with Intel, combined Nokia previous Maemo Linux for N900 with Intel  mobilin). If you don't have IT background or don't have the relevent level of IT knowlege and experience, if you don't  know about  IT open source, you can't understand the significant background of these two technology and especially its behind massive sources of both already existing developers, and development apps and toos,  if you don't understand the significance and meaning of QT's cross-platform, on which Applications and services can be built independent of platforms thus you don't see the great potentials of a big picture of Nokia's new tech and market postion,  I am sorry this is not my fault.  My holiday in north pole is going to end tomorrow, I am afraid I don't have much time to tell all the stories in all details...  

3. Nokia's interest is the dominance of full range of a global level mobile market, not the focus of a special market segment.  It is not just a hardware plus software vendor, now it is playing out  a new game, a service provider.  Recentlly it has made two new strategic alliances  with IT giants Yahoo and Microsoft.

Nokia’s Ovi Mail and Ovi Chat services will be exclusively provided and branded by Yahoo, while Yahoo’s mapping and navigation services will now be exclusively provided and branded Nokia's Navteq that burned Nokia another 8 billion in acquision in 2007. This is Nokia's response to Google's cloud services. Yahoo Widgets platform of web apps will be featured on Nokia's MeeGo smartphone platform.  Yahoo Widgets of web apps were said the major competitor to Google's web APIs.  It was said dual-branded services start to show in the second half of this year and the union will be more apparent with a global rollout in 2011.  Yahoo! Mail has over 600 million members and Nokia Ovi has over 9 million mail users.

To ease the payment of app download from Nokia app store Ovi, the fees can be billed directly from prepaid sim card or subscriber's carrier. According to my personal sources,  many improvements of Ovi services are going on.

The Microsoft-Nokia alliance plan to put MS office applications on Nokia smartphones that is believed to enable Nokia to better target enterprise cusotmers.

Now smart phone market has turned to be more service penetration or orientaion, but remember it's PHONE's service market and the service is on the top of the mobile devices which are builts on demanding tech including both hardware and software platforms, services can never go ALONE!   Vice versa, without services, there will be no market for phone makers.

4. Regarding the alliance with Intel for high end smartphone plafforms, Nokia believes Intel chips will offer best performance for Meego Linux, much better than ARM+maemo...

5. In 2009 the second quater, Nokia made a big writting-off of the goodwill of Nokia Siemens Network. Now there is sign NSN business is improving and has started upturn. NSN no longer makes Nokia lose money...

I have spent so much time honestly sharing what I know about almost every aspect of Nokia, the whole business, the tech, the service and NSN in order to draw a big picture of Nokia's turning point of current crisis. I am not intending to convince you anything but merely send messages to those shorters who should be beware not to be trapped, or to those longers who should not cut the meat on the floor.

The current stock value of Nokia is munipulated and screwed which does reflect either the value or potential of Nokia. This year Nokia's earning estimate is about euro .57-.65 and current price is about euro6.7  You can calculate the reasonable price with a reasonalbe PE vallue.  Nokia is at very big risk of being taken over. Here I have already heard some rumor that even Samsung is going to take over Nokia at Euro 14. And  there is some speculation that Miscroft would buy Nokia which can hardly succeed due to the anti-trust law...
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发表于 2010-7-11 12:54 PM | 显示全部楼层
Alex68, r u working for Nokia? if so, your views show how wrong nokia's understanding of consumer market is. It's not about technology/platform, it's about brand and perception, which Nokia has screwed up big time. I am not saying Nokia is dead in the cell phone market, but to reverse to course in the smart phone universe, what u mentioned is not relevant.

btw, if Nokia is still dreaming of dominance of global mobile market, wake up please. I am not sure what IT giants you are talking about, but AAPL and GOOG is the only IT giants in the consumer universe.

I am just talking about the consumer market.
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发表于 2010-7-11 01:10 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 alex68 于 2010-7-11 18:20 编辑
Alex68, r u working for Nokia? if so, your views show how wrong nokia's understanding of consumer ma ...
morphias 发表于 2010-7-11 14:54


I am not working for Nokia anymore for many years already. My current job has nothing to do with Nokia. If there is any indirect relation with Nokia at work,  yes Nokia is one of my firm's customers.

Nokia is also a giant, it is a telecommunication tech giant, consumer electronic device giant in tele field.  Don't be ignorant like those brain-washed white trush in North America!  Check all the fact data, concerning employ size, revenue, market share etc...
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发表于 2010-7-11 05:12 PM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 alex68 于 2010-7-12 01:54 编辑

Regarding Jorma Ollila, he is having double roles both at Nokia and Shell as the director of  the board.  Not sure why he hasn't fired Olli-Pekka as Nokia stock price has dropped about 60% since Olli-Pekka became the CEO.  Maybe it now is still a  bit too early to give a death sentense to Olli-Pekka...

Yes, I agree CFO is corporate bean counter! One secrecy of the slowness of N8 release is that the actual development is done in India which potentially costs more due to the time difference, communcation cost and quality of work etc.  My closest source said the top management only did  the simple math. The slowness of high end products has brought the biggest crisis and challenges to Nokia.

Here people are sometimes speaking of the corruption in Finnish forum, without details.  I have beening wondering if it has sth related those two acquisitions(qt and navteq) that looked very costly to me...

Lastly, mobile phone market is not saturated yet and the smartphone market is growing and changing faster than ever. The cards of market is ruffling. Nokia's biggest bet is to use open os platforms to strenghen its weak point, services. You have to understand the tech I just mentioned...

I am running out of time to tell or respond more what I know about Nokia...
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发表于 2010-7-12 01:28 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 alex68 于 2010-7-12 04:54 编辑

Accoring to WIKI,  Olli-Pekka background was master of law, NOT MBA.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olli-Pekka_Kallasvuo

So far the moves and intention of both tech and business model of Nokia, I believe, are smart and wise enough, according to my experience and knoledge...
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-7-12 01:38 PM | 显示全部楼层
Accoring to WIKI,  Olli-Pekka background was master of law, NOT MBA.



So far the moves and int ...
alex68 发表于 2010-7-12 03:28



Lawyer? 那就更糟了,Citigroup的Chuck Prince, AIG的Mark Sullivan,还有Pfizer的Jeff Kindler都是血淋淋的榜样。

Lawyer当公司头比MBA还可怕。
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-7-20 01:38 AM | 显示全部楼层
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB ... J_hps_LEFTWhatsNews

Nokia Conducting Search for New CEO

Mobile phone maker Nokia Corp. has launched a search for a new chief executive, people familiar with the situation said Monday.

The move comes as the current chief executive, Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, struggles to find traction for the company in the market for high-end smartphones.


---------------------------

俺说的不错吧,那个Olli-Pekka家伙就是笨蛋一个。还好Jorma没有完全退出,如果能找个像样的CEO(比如HP的Mark Hurd),Nokia还是有希望的。
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发表于 2010-7-20 08:14 AM | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 alex68 于 2010-7-20 17:12 编辑

There has been rumours and news in Finnish forum that nokia has been looking for a new CEO for quite  a long time, but nothing happened yet so far. I guess it is not so  easy to find a suitable one for Nokia. There are a lot of discussions here...

Nokia's business is in much better shape than its stock looks.  The patents dispute with Apple is worth more than 1 B that Apple will have to pay to nokia sometime, if not this year...

In April, Nokia purchased an American firm Novarra. Novarra's main business is intercepting web mobile browsing sessions to collect demographic data, as well as optimising the content for the device being used.  Later Nokia bought another privately-owned geographic intelligence company Metacarta. In July Nokia sold Metacarta but interestingly kept Metacarta's geographic intelligence technology for local search services.

These two purchases were very interesting but apparently very few people paid attentions to these two purchases.  I found only one analysis from UK that seemed to understand what Nokia intends to do...
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发表于 2010-7-20 08:33 AM | 显示全部楼层
Last year Nokia spent 6b on R&D that was 6 times as much as Apple's R&D expenses.  A lot of new tech, products and services have been under heavy research and development. The company needs to innovate not only the tech and mobile devices but also services. In the following 6-18 months, we'll see the results...
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 楼主| 发表于 2010-7-20 11:49 AM | 显示全部楼层
R&D花多少并不重要,Pfizer的R&D开支一直是Genentech的几倍,但Genentech的blockbuster连出,Pfizer的大Phase 3一个个失败。

Steve Jobs没回Apple以前,Apple也是差不多这个样子。

关键是在领导,至于公司烧了多少钱,在败家子手里多少都是一样。

Nokia想东山再起,必须把Olli-Pekka干掉,时间不多了!
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