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SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
Non-Stop |
07/15 L |
N/A |
Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks. |
ST Model |
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*Stopped out long position entered on 07/20 with gains. *Long if up day tomorrow. The stop loss will be 1.9*ATR(10) if long setup confirmed. | | *Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: THE FIRST NINE TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST ARE HISTORICALLY WEAK
See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: HINDENBURG OMEN MEANS A CRASH AHEAD?
我猜今天很多newsletter or blog的report都会提到Hindenburg Omen,据说这是market要crash的前兆。我不sure这玩艺是否有用,反正今天触发了,小心为上吧。
下面的图是2007 and 2008出现Hindenburg Omen时的情况,此后都发生了什么,不用说了哈。
有Hindenburg Omen就会有T2105,同时new high and new low的股票很多,表示一种market内部的inconsistency,所以是不好的现象。
以上总结一下,就是看起来intermediate-term不妙,当然,牛牛会说,Yes We Can or Never Fight with Fed,所以,我不知道哈,我只是告诉大家有这么个信号。
SHORT-TERM: MARKET COULD HAVE BOTTOMED, NEED FOLLOW THROUGH TOMORROW
今天到处都是反转棒,see chart below for a few examples。昨天的Market Recap展示的6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch,其实也有one more trading day就到底的,因此,我不能否认今天已经见底的可能性,当然要看明天是否有follow through。
SPY ST Model,今天long position stopped out了,应该损失了很多profits。关于这个model,我在08/09 After Bell Quick Summary里已经提示过要partial profit了哈,所以今天的stop out只是为了追求利润最大化而hold as long as possible要付出的代价。明天如果green day,suppose要long,我想说的是,如果明天confirm long,SPY ST Model目前有81%的winning rate,应该也能从一个侧面说明market bottom的可能性很大。Again SPY ST Model for fun only哈,YMYD。
以上,是说,明天能green很重要,那么明天能不能green呢?
明天是八月最bullish的一天,而此后seasonality也都牛牛友好。
在08/06 After Bell Quick Summary,我提到过,back to back unfilled gaps很快会fill,08/06以后indeed。见下面的图,明天如果又是gap down,这个gap也应该很快会补,因为又是back to back unfilled gaps (well, sort of, not strictly)。
以上,总结一下,就是看起来明天牛多熊少,非常可能follow through today’s reversal。
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
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