08/16/2010 大盘回顾（Still Look Like a Top?）

Cobra · 发表于 2010-8-16 05:40 PM

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	1 of 2 are SELL		Sell signal to be confirmed.
Intermediate	2 of 3 are BUY	5 of 5 are NEUTRAL	SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term	Model is SELL	5 of 5 are NEUTRAL	Shorted on 08/11, added on 08/16, hold partial overnight.
GANN DAY	MOON/SOLAR	CYCLE	CONCLUSION
8/26	08/24 / 08/23	8/23	Next pivot date: 08/23 – 08/26

BULLISH	6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: NYDNV:NYUPV > 35, bottomed?
BEARISH	0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Hindenburg Omen? So market will crash? T2105 too high. 0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: too low, still at top?

SPY SETUP

ENTRY DATE

STOP LOSS

INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU

Non-Stop

08/16S

N/A

*Close long initiated on 07/15, sell short on 08/16.

*For general direction guide only.

ST Model

*Setup no confirmed on Monday but still valid. Long if up day tomorrow.
*The stop loss will be 1.9*ATR(10) if long signal confirmed.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLLISH

See 08/13 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED

The correction since 04/26 isn’t over. See 07/30 Market Recap for more details.
The 07/01 low may be tested. See 08/13 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: MAY SEE A REBOUND BUT IF INDEED MAY NOT GO TOO HIGH

今天的好消息在After Bell Quick Summary里已经说了，0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals形成了3个reversal like bar，因此不能排除market已经bottom的可能，问题是如果真有rebound的话，how far the rebound could go？我认为可能走不远，换句话说，就是自08/09开始的pullback还没有结束。

下面是rebound可能走不远的证据，看起来，the market依然是在顶部，而不是在底部。这些图应该已经很清楚了，所以就不再解释了。

0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume.

T2105.

6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – New update. Click BLUE* to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP
IWM	UP
CHINA	UP
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	UP
CANADA	UP
BOND	UP	*Breakout!
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP
GDX	DOWN
OIL	UP
ENERGY	UP
FINANCIALS	UP
REITS	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	UP

妞妞 · 发表于 2010-8-16 05:42 PM

这么早就出报告了, 谢谢班长, 先顶后看.

RedCedar · 发表于 2010-8-16 05:43 PM

Bench, Thanks Cobra!

源济 · 发表于 2010-8-16 05:44 PM

zeebra · 发表于 2010-8-16 05:44 PM

sofa

cartier · 发表于 2010-8-16 05:45 PM

jingriver · 发表于 2010-8-16 05:46 PM

IMeMyself · 发表于 2010-8-16 05:47 PM

thanks

hannah · 发表于 2010-8-16 05:47 PM

oda · 发表于 2010-8-16 05:49 PM

lehldk · 发表于 2010-8-16 05:50 PM

顶蛇老大，好多的老大看涨，我也看涨，但看不到能涨到哪里？所以就当range trading 算了，一涨就卖，一跌就买。

c3456 · 发表于 2010-8-16 05:51 PM

ppteam · 发表于 2010-8-16 05:53 PM

don't timing the market, this freaking market can be easily manipulated in Aug.
Just buy some Dec puts in bounce.

southware · 发表于 2010-8-16 06:00 PM

先顶后看，班长，辛苦了

t-k · 发表于 2010-8-16 06:00 PM

Paul · 发表于 2010-8-16 06:01 PM

1st page!

Paul · 发表于 2010-8-16 06:02 PM

1st page!

hunting · 发表于 2010-8-16 06:02 PM

谢班长，，明天空它一把，

Paul · 发表于 2010-8-16 06:03 PM

1st page!

soulvirus · 发表于 2010-8-16 06:04 PM

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[技术分析] 08/16/2010 大盘回顾（Still Look Like a Top?）

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[技术分析] 08/16/2010 大盘回顾 （Still Look Like a Top?）

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[技术分析] 08/16/2010 大盘回顾（Still Look Like a Top?）