08/31/2010 大盘回顾 （One Day Up One Day Down?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term Model is SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is down, I hold no position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 9/10 09/08 / 09/08 9/5, 9/6 Next pivot date: 09/07 – 09/10

BULLISH *6.4.6b QQQQ Hollow Red Bar Watch: Hollow Red bar reversal? BEARISH 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: the 3rd Hindenburg Omen triggered. T2105 too high.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 08/16 S N/A For general direction guide only. ST Model *Sell short if SPY tomorrow’s open > tomorrow’s close. The stop loss will be 1.9 * ATR(10). *Treat this model as a joke because someone with bogus email address told me that I should throw this model away.  So again and again and again, for fun only.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

 

SEASONALITY: BEARISH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BULLISH LATER

See 08/27 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICS ARE BEARISH, THE NEXT PIVOT DATE IS AROUND 09/07 TO 09/10

See 08/27 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: QQQQ HOLLOW RED BAR GIVES BULL HOPES BUT SPX SHOULD BREAK ITS RECENT ONE DAY UP ONE DAY DOWN PATTERN FIRST

 

明天由于有月初bullish seasonality的帮助(See 08/27 Market Recap)，因此SPX很有希望打破最近涨一天，跌一天的pattern。不管你怎么看牛，至少第一步SPX要能连涨两天，对吧？所以看明天啦。Overall，the daily chart doesn’t look good，特别是已经三次测试1040了，如果第四次再测试的话，基本上就不要指望1040能hold，而一旦breakdown，根据Measured Move，07/01的low就是minimum target了。

 

 

6.4.6b QQQQ Hollow Red Bar Watch，这个是牛牛的好消息，今天是不是bottom，过两天就知道了，先提示一下，有这么回事。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	DTMFS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN
IWM	DOWN
CHINA	UP		Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING	DOWN		4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	DOWN
CANADA	UP	BUY
BOND	UP	*BUY	4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Too far away from MA(200).
EURO	DOWN	*SELL
GOLD	UP	*SELL
GDX	UP		4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high. 3.2.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Daily): ChiOsc is too high.
OIL	DOWN	*SELL
ENERGY	DOWN
FINANCIALS	DOWN		4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	DOWN		4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	DOWN

*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

IMeMyself

SF

IMeMyself

Bench

brcm

re

德州牛仔

shatianyou

bendeng

lehldk

啊， up

zhang

Thank you.

moriah

bandeng

c3456

moriah

diban

COS

tortose

wnd4

thanks

dreampen

ut1984

t-k

lilyxi

ding...

hillcrest

zhyuan04

谢蛇大。不过我有3个comments：（1）8月初的时候SPX也在反复test 1127-1130area，大概也去了3-4次。我记得当时大家都很乐观觉得1130是必然破的，结果大家都知道了。后来SPX下破1100大家才意识到顶已经过了，所以这次如果底是1040，我猜要等到SPX上破1070大家才会意识到底已经过了。 不过这是没办法的事，谁也没有能力预先知道。
（2） 一天跌一天涨固然对牛牛不利，但是对熊熊也不利，所以应该是neutral.
(3)市场随时可能speculate FED 进一步搞什么动作来stimulate economy, 所以现在也不易持重仓做空过夜（虽然TA是在downtrend）。

回复 1# Cobra