09/01/2010 大盘回顾 （Tradable Bottom）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is up, I hold partial long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 9/10 09/08 / 09/08 9/5, 9/6 Next pivot date: 09/07 – 09/10

BULLISH 6.4.6b QQQQ Hollow Red Bar Watch: Hollow Red bar reversal? *6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: Tradable bottom if 2 MAD within 5 days? BEARISH 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: the 3rd Hindenburg Omen triggered. T2105 too high.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 08/16 S N/A For general direction guide only. ST Model *Potential short triggered on 08/31 not confirmed and no longer valid.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

 

SEASONALITY: BEARISH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BULLISH LATER

See 08/27 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICS ARE BEARISH, THE NEXT PIVOT DATE IS AROUND 09/07 TO 09/10

See 08/27 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: PRICE TARGET SPX 1084 OR 1094, TIME TARGET 09/07 TO 09/10

 

先更正一个错误，今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提到，因为CPC <= 0.81，所以明天有67%机会green，不过the final CPC reading最后又修正为0.82，这样明天看牛的统计就么有了，剩下的2个统计都是slightly bearish，加上Labor Day seasonality明天不怎么牛牛友好(See 08/27 Market Recap)，所以说明天slightly bearish可能比较可靠。

 

Anyway，基本上，反弹不会只有今天一天wonder，因此既使明天真的slightly bearish，那也只是个健康回调而已，理由是6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch, tradable bottom if 2 Major Accumulation Day within 5 days。

 

 

08/27 Market Recap关于the next pivot date could be around 09/07 to 09/10还记得吧？当时不清楚是top还是bottom，那么从现在的情况看，09/07 to 09/10 could be a top。下面的图提供了更多的证据，as well as price target，应该很清楚了，就不解释了。

 

 

如果不清楚上面的图里说的Triple Bottom的话，下面的SPY 60 min图应该可以看清楚了，也就不blah blah了。Triple Bottom meet target的成功率是64%，顺便说。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	DTMFS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN
IWM	DOWN	*BUY
CHINA	UP		Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING	DOWN		4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	DOWN
CANADA	UP	BUY
BOND	UP		4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Too far away from MA(200).
EURO	DOWN	SELL
GOLD	UP
GDX	UP		4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL	DOWN	SELL
ENERGY	DOWN
FINANCIALS	DOWN		4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	DOWN	*BUY	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	DOWN

*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

darren168

1st

胡同儿串子

2nd

pig2006

Thanks laoda!

t-k

abaqus

n748

ding yixia

IMeMyself

thanks and first page

neo

oda

thanks

windy

Thanks

like2swing

Thanks.

impresario100

hhli3

soulvirus

surya

armorr

匪兵甲

Thanks, ban zhang!

妞妞

谢谢班长. 等下次大的回调俺一定买`买`买, 俺已经叛变到CM大牛阵营了, 呵呵.

jinr

班长，好像下午消失的P-BAR又回来了？