09/02/2010 大盘回顾 （Pullback?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term Model is BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL Closed long added on 09/02. Hold partial long taken on 09/01. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 9/10 09/08 / 09/08 9/5, 9/6 Next pivot date: 09/07 – 09/10

BULLISH 6.4.6b QQQQ Hollow Red Bar Watch: Hollow Red bar reversal? 6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: Tradable bottom if 2 MAD within 5 days? BEARISH 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: the 3rd Hindenburg Omen triggered.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 08/16 S N/A For general direction guide only. ST Model

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BULLISH LATER

See 08/27 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICS ARE BEARISH, THE NEXT PIVOT DATE IS AROUND 09/07 TO 09/10

See 08/27 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: TICK MA(3) TOO HIGH, COULD SEE PULLBACK SOON

 

今天比较特别的地方是TICK MA(3) extremely high，从下图看，这意味着至少短期会有pullback。

 

 

其他没啥说的，明天又是Non Farm Payroll day，关于这个day的特点，我讲过很多次了，高开多半低走，低开则多半高走。具体可以参看08/05 Market Recap。（顺便说在天朝的读者应该没法访问我blog的链接，解决的办法是用胡同的search，找我对应的08/05/2010 大盘回顾，英文版的其实是从中文版翻译过去的）提示一下，从下面的图看，明天如果是red day，就要小心trend change，我的next pivot date around 09/07 to 09/10可能会成真。

 

 

这个看一下，非常有趣，和08/05 Market Recap的情形一模一样，明天如果低开，当天unfilled话，这个gap几天内多半会补，理由是back to back unfilled gap非常非常少，至少下面的图上没有，每个unfilled gap之间都是要隔上几天的。因此明天既使低开，unfilled，最后red，意味着很大可能trend change的话，也不用紧张，因为今天的close几天内还会去的。

 

 

下面的图解释了什么是back to back unfilled gap，因为我发现很多同学没有明白我的意思。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	DTMFS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN
IWM	DOWN	BUY
CHINA	UP		Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING	DOWN		4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	DOWN
CANADA	UP	BUY
BOND	UP	*SELL	4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Too far away from MA(200).
EURO	DOWN		*6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: GLD black bar means US$ rebound tomorrow?
GOLD	UP
GDX	UP		4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL	DOWN
ENERGY	DOWN
FINANCIALS	DOWN	*BUY	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	DOWN	BUY	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	DOWN	*BUY

*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

slcgh

dreampen

songjiang

Thanks!

stockgirl

Fist page! Thank you!

t-k

西安

babyruth

hi-liter

thanks a lot. Really good.

happyface

thx

bucks

jdad4

回复 1# Cobra


    thanks a lot!

IMeMyself

Thanks and in first page

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


    thanks

hifive

不懂

thx. 假如明天高开跳过8月19日的gap，算不算back-to-back gap？

COS

Fan8an

Thanks

tomzhou88

thx

Cobra

thx. 假如明天高开跳过8月19日的gap，算不算back-to-back gap？
不懂 发表于 2010-9-2 20:32

    不算。