09/09/2010 大盘回顾 （A top of some kind might be close）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up and I hold partial long overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 9/10 09/08 / 09/08 9/5, 9/6 Next pivot date: 09/07 – 09/10

BULLISH BEARISH 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high, topped? *0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: Volume too low, topped? *6.4.6a QQQQ Black Bar Watch: Black bar, top is close?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model *Cover short on 09/09 with loss.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK SOON

 

我认为market差不多应该在一个short-term top附近了。Not sure明天是否还能涨一天，主要理由我已经在今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提了，911 patriotic rally，此外，因为是Rosh Hashanah holiday附近，交易量会很低，这时候大户如果出货的话，没有人接盘，不容易卖个好价钱，所以这也限制了明天可能下跌幅度(if any)。

 

下面综合一下为什么说short-term top就在附近的理由。

 

08/27 Market Recap里，我提到了09/07 to 09/10 time window，下面两幅图应该很清楚，我是怎么得到09/07 to 09/10 time window的，现在price and time target都到位了，因此在目前这个时间和价位发生变盘的可能性非常大。

 

 

6.4.6a QQQQ Black Bar Watch，这个已经在今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提了，a top of some kind should be very close。

 

 

0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch，CPCI很高，意味着top就在附近，不要忘了这个茬。

 

 

0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume，今天又是low volume，也是top sign。

 

 

1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，yesterday提到的missing RSI negative divergence今天也fulfill了，此外还形成了个Bearish Rising Wedge，这个经常是ending pattern。

 

 

1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps，最后不要忘了，09/07 and 09/08形成的back to back unfilled gaps，这个是迟早要还的。另外，去年最牛的时候SPY max形成了18个unfilled gap，而我们现在已经是16个unfilled gap了，我不认为现在能比去年还牛，所以短期内，这16个gap应该多少会填几个的。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT 3 LEG UP, MINI SPX 100 POINT FROM 08/27 CLOSE

See 09/03 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: SEPTEMBER IS BEARISH

See 09/03 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	DTFMS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP
IWM	LA
CHINA	UP		Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING	UP		4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	*UP
CANADA	DOWN		*TOADV MA(10) too high, may pullback further.
BOND	*DOWN		4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Too far away from MA(200).
EURO	DOWN
GOLD	*DOWN	SELL
GDX	DOWN	*SELL	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high, pullback?
OIL	*DOWN		4.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Weekly): USO to SPX ratio too low, rebound?
ENERGY	LA
FINANCIALS	*UP		4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	*DOWN		4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging and IYR to SPX ratio too high.
MATERIALS	*LA

*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.
*LA = Lateral Trend.

X中国陆军

X中国陆军

skipjack

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