*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK SOON
短期还是看回调,理由在09/09 Market Recap和周五的After Bell Quick Summary里都谈了:
- Pivot window around 09/07 to 09/10.
- 6.4.6a QQQQ Black Bar Watch, QQQQ black bar.
- 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch, CPCI too high.
- 0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume, NYSE total volume too low.
- 1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), Bearish Rising Wedge as ending pattern plus RSI negative divergence.
- 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps, 16 unfilled gap, too many.
- 6.4.4 SPY Price Volume Negative Divergence Watch, price volume negative divergence.
现在我不太sure的是周一是否还有一冲?因为1.0.1 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)看着好像是个Ascending Triangle,因此多半还有一冲。
此外,周一如果低开且unfilled话,又是个back to back unfilled gap,这个应该是很快就要补的,因此我很怀疑是否周一就开始pullback。
其他没啥,上述的top信号,周五又有两个有更新,看一下吧,应该更增加了top of some kind的可能性。
0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume,更low。
0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch,CPCI再次skyrocket high。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: TO BE ASSESSED, IT’S NOT AS BULLISH AS I ORIGINALLY THOUGHT
关于中期,见下面的图,market并没有我想象的那么强,至少不是重复2009年三月和七月的情形,反而看起来跟过去几次大幅下跌后,rebound 2 weeks in a row的情况很像,特别是如果下周就大幅pullback的话,因此我暂时hold 09/03 Market Recap中关于3 leg up, mini 100 SPX point up from 08/27 close的forecast,need more evidences to assess。
关于08/27是不是the bottom的问题,我在09/03 Market Recap中,提到VIX:VXV too low,因此很怀疑how far the market could go。此外还有个suspect,就是好像很少有底是平的,08/27如果是the bottom的话,这个bottom确实非常非常特殊。Again put these 2 guys into suspect list,根据下周的情况再综合起来评估。
SEASONALITY: SEPTEMBER IS BEARISH, THE TRIPLE WITCHING FRIDAY IS BULLISH
See 09/03 Market Recap for September seasonality.
Also according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, the September Triple Witching, Dow up 5 straight and 6 of last 7.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly. *LA = Lateral Trend.
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