*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
SHORT-TERM: STILL EXPECT PULLBACK, NOT SURE WHEN AS THE MARKET MAY STILL HAVE A FEW DAYS UP
我还是看短期pullback,因为09/10 Market Recap列的所有top signal都还有效。不过,单从今天的price action看,除非有什么意想不到的事件,否则market可能还会涨或者至少盘整几天。理由还是像今天这么强的上升动力不可能突然逆转,必须先减速几天(which could be a series of small up or down consolidation days),如果这还是地球的话。Trading wise,很简单,short is for aggressive traders only,因为intermediate-term trend is up,并且既使short的话,general pattern,一般是要等breakdown trend line then back test bull extreme以后才可能考虑,现在连trend line都没有破,short显然风险比较大。
今天值得blah blah的地方是COMPQ formed 5 unfilled gaps within 8 trading days,这种情况,只有2009 Santa Rally可以比拟,see 12/24/2009 Market Recap,当时COMPQ整了5 consecutive unfilled gaps within 6 trading days,下面的图显示了what happened thereafter。当然,info only,并不是暗示we’re going to repeat exactly the same。
今天另一个值得blah blah的是SPX涨了1.1%而TNX却跌了1.9%,看起来很bearish,因为TNX usually leads,不过back test since year 2000,我并没有看到什么bearish edge,所以这个可能不是看跌的理由。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH, BUT HOW BULLIS IS TO BE REASSESSED
See 09/10 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: SEPTEMBER IS BEARISH, THE TRIPLE WITCHING FRIDAY IS BULLISH
See 09/03 Market Recap for September seasonality. Also according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, the September Triple Witching, Dow up 5 straight and 6 of last 7.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
*LA = Lateral Trend.
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