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[技术分析] 09/13/2010 大盘回顾 (5 Unfilled Gaps within 8 Trading Days)

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发表于 2010-9-13 06:12 PM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL  
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up, I hold partial long overnight.
GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
9/10, 9/21 09/08 / 09/08 9/5, 9/6 Next pivot date: 09/07 – 09/10, 09/21 – 09/23
BULLISH
BEARISH 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high, topped?
0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: Volume too low, topped?
6.4.6a QQQQ Black Bar Watch: Black bar, top is close?
6.4.4 SPY Price Volume Negative Divergence Watch: Price volume negative divergence.
*1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 17 unfilled gaps, the max was 18.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A
ST Model
*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SHORT-TERM: STILL EXPECT PULLBACK, NOT SURE WHEN AS THE MARKET MAY STILL HAVE A FEW DAYS UP

 

我还是看短期pullback,因为09/10 Market Recap列的所有top signal都还有效。不过,单从今天的price action看,除非有什么意想不到的事件,否则market可能还会涨或者至少盘整几天。理由还是像今天这么强的上升动力不可能突然逆转,必须先减速几天(which could be a series of small up or down consolidation days),如果这还是地球的话。Trading wise,很简单,short is for aggressive traders only,因为intermediate-term trend is up,并且既使short的话,general pattern,一般是要等breakdown trend line then back test bull extreme以后才可能考虑,现在连trend line都没有破,short显然风险比较大。

 

SPY60min.png

 

今天值得blah blah的地方是COMPQ formed 5 unfilled gaps within 8 trading days,这种情况,只有2009 Santa Rally可以比拟,see 12/24/2009 Market Recap,当时COMPQ整了5 consecutive unfilled gaps within 6 trading days,下面的图显示了what happened thereafter。当然,info only,并不是暗示we’re going to repeat exactly the same。

 

5UnfilledGapsWithin8TD.png

COMPQDaily.png

 

今天另一个值得blah blah的是SPX涨了1.1%而TNX却跌了1.9%,看起来很bearish,因为TNX usually leads,不过back test since year 2000,我并没有看到什么bearish edge,所以这个可能不是看跌的理由。

 

SPYUpTNXDownBackTestSummary.png

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH, BUT HOW BULLIS IS TO BE REASSESSED

See 09/10 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: SEPTEMBER IS BEARISH, THE TRIPLE WITCHING FRIDAY IS BULLISH

See 09/03 Market Recap for September seasonality. Also according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, the September Triple Witching, Dow up 5 straight and 6 of last 7.

 


HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ UP 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM UP
CHINA UP Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING UP 4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN UP
CANADA UP TOADV MA(10) too high, may pullback further.
BOND *LA *3.0.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily): rebound from multiple support. More up?
EURO LA
GOLD *LA
GDX *LA 4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high and Bearish Engulfing.
OIL UP *Black bar under MA(50), pullback?
ENERGY UP
FINANCIALS UP 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS *UP 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging and IYR to SPX ratio too high.
MATERIALS UP
*LA = Lateral Trend.

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发表于 2010-9-13 06:12 PM | 显示全部楼层
1st

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first page
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thanks
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发表于 2010-9-13 06:19 PM | 显示全部楼层
第一页?
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发表于 2010-9-13 06:19 PM | 显示全部楼层
thanks
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发表于 2010-9-13 06:21 PM | 显示全部楼层
头版。
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发表于 2010-9-13 06:22 PM | 显示全部楼层
thank you Cobra!
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发表于 2010-9-13 06:26 PM | 显示全部楼层
thanks and first page
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发表于 2010-9-13 06:27 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-9-13 06:31 PM | 显示全部楼层
thx, ding
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发表于 2010-9-13 06:32 PM | 显示全部楼层
Thanks Cobra
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