*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
SHORT-TERM: STILL EXPECT PULLBACK, NOT SURE WHEN AS THE MARKET MAY STILL HAVE A FEW DAYS UP
维持09/13 Market Recap的forecast, still expect a pullback, may occur after a few days small up or consolidation。
今天又有两个不是很好的sign,当然不是什么solid proof,看看玩玩吧。
下面的图有几个Fib 100%的巧合,理论上,both price and time target met,可能意味着今天就是top,我不sure,只是说,有这个可能。
- 09/14 is Fib 100% from 07/01 low to 08/09 high in terms of trading days.
- 89 point from 06/08 low to 06/21 high = 89 point from 07/01 low to 07/13 high = 88 point from 08/27 low to 09/14 high.
今天的After Bell Quick Summary里提到了0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals的空心红棒棒可能意味着top,此外,除了空心红棒棒以外,连着2个small body bar (kind of Doji bars),感觉也不是很好。下面的图highlighted近几年连着2个small body bar (|open - close| < 0.25 * ATR(10) and RSI(2) > 85)的情况,可以看到:
- 短期内pullback的可能性较大,虽然有些case,SPY simply up and up and up,这也是为什么我在今天的After Bell Quick Summary里说,要想避免pullback除非有huge up day的理由。
- Short at today’s close, cover at the very first red day close since year 2000,有71%的winning rate。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH, BUT HOW BULLIS IS TO BE REASSESSED
See 09/10 Market Recap for more details.
SEASONALITY: SEPTEMBER IS BEARISH, THE TRIPLE WITCHING FRIDAY IS BULLISH
See 09/03 Market Recap for September seasonality.
Also according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, the September Triple Witching, Dow up 5 straight and 6 of last 7.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
*LA = Lateral Trend.
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