09/15/2010 大盘回顾 （No Title）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up, I hold partial long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 9/21 09/23 / 09/23 Week of 09/24 Next pivot date: 09/21 – 09/23

BULLISH BEARISH 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high, topped? 0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: Volume too low, topped? 6.4.6a QQQQ Black Bar Watch: Black bar, top is close? 6.4.4 SPY Price Volume Negative Divergence Watch: Price volume negative divergence. 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 17 unfilled gaps, the max was 18.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SHORT-TERM: STILL EXPECT PULLBACK, NOT SURE WHEN AS THE MARKET MAY STILL HAVE A FEW DAYS UP

 

今天没有什么好说的，maintain the forecast mentioned in 09/13 Market Recap: Expect a pullback, but it may occur after a few days small up or consolidation.

 

从下面的图看，consolidation under an important resistance (red horizontal line)，最终向上突破的可能性大，尤其是现在大有机会明天早上轻松gap up过resistance。不过还是老话，除非大涨特涨，否则图中的negative divergence只会由于明天的breakout而变得much larger，最终还是要由较大幅度的下跌来修正的，此外不要忘了，明天gap up unfilled的话，将是the 18th SPY unfilled gaps，算平了历史纪录了。

 

 

下面的图看一下，a little divergence between VIX and SPX again，这次的比前次的还要大点，是不是意味着trend change？No idea yet，因为不知道是不是跟周五的Triple Witching有关，看看再说吧。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH, BUT HOW BULLISH IS TO BE REASSESSED

See 09/10 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: SEPTEMBER IS BEARISH, THE TRIPLE WITCHING FRIDAY IS BULLISH

See 09/03 Market Recap for September seasonality.

 

Also according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, the September Triple Witching, Dow up 5 straight and 6 of last 7.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high. 1.1.1 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily): NAADV MA(10) too high.
IWM	UP
CHINA	UP	Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	UP	*Hollow red bar, pullback?
CANADA	*LA	*TOADV MA(10) too high. Hanging Man and Shooting Star and Hanging Man again, more pullback?
BOND	*DOWN
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP
GDX	*LA	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high and Bearish Engulfing.
OIL	LA
ENERGY	LA	2 Doji in a row, doesn’t look good.
FINANCIALS	*UP	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	*UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging and IYR to SPX ratio too high. *3.4.1 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily): Hollow red bar, pullback?
MATERIALS	*LA	*2 hollow red bars in a row, pullback?

*LA = Lateral Trend.

dreampen

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mlif

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dreampen

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dreampen

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dreampen

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dreampen

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cogitoepk

thanks a lot.

dreampen

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Fan8an

Thanks

IMeMyself

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greatinter

1st page.

Summerrose

tonyshen

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Jeff

thanks!

妞妞

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开小差

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