09/16/2010 大盘回顾 （Ascending Triangle）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up, I hold no long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 9/21 09/23 / 09/23 Week of 09/24 Next pivot date: 09/21 – 09/23

BULLISH BEARISH 0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high, topped? 0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: Volume too low, topped? 6.4.6a QQQQ Black Bar Watch: Black bar, top is close? 6.4.4 SPY Price Volume Negative Divergence Watch: Price volume negative divergence. 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 17 unfilled gaps, the max was 18. *AAII is way too bullish.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SHORT-TERM: STILL EXPECT PULLBACK, NOT SURE WHEN AS THE MARKET MAY STILL HAVE A FEW DAYS UP

 

今天还是没啥好说的，maintain the forecast mentioned in 09/13 Market Recap: Expect a pullback, but it may occur after a few days small up or consolidation.

 

从下面的图看，so far符合a few days of consolidation的pattern。需要注意的是，consolidation后的突破是双向的，因此虽然看着像是八月的top，但也可能最终是向上突破，因此严格的讲，现在是方向未定。

 

 

1.0.1 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)，可能是个Ascending Triangle，加上AH RIMM and ORCL的good ER，也许明天就突破向上，大涨特涨，如果真这样的话，熊熊要小心，a renewed up momentum同样不会只是一天的wonder。

 

 

下面的图我在09/14 Market Recap里展示过，明天又是个Fib 100% retracement in terms of trading days的机会，因此也有可能明天是top。只是说可能，I’m not sure。Anyway，不管明天是top也好或者大涨特涨也好，下一个potential pivot date就是09/21 to 09/23 time window了，关于为什么，周末的报告会解释。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH, BUT HOW BULLISH IS TO BE REASSESSED

See 09/10 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: SEPTEMBER IS BEARISH, THE TRIPLE WITCHING FRIDAY IS BULLISH

See 09/03 Market Recap for September seasonality.

 

Also according to Stock Trader’s Almanac, the September Triple Witching, Dow up 5 straight and 6 of last 7.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM	*LA
CHINA		Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING	*LA	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high. *1.4.1 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Daily): Hollow red bar again, looks toppy.
EUROPEAN	UP	Hollow red bar, pullback?
CANADA	LA	TOADV MA(10) too high. Hanging Man and Shooting Star and Hanging Man again, more pullback?
BOND	DOWN	*Breakdown below an important support.
EURO	UP	*Black bar, pullback?
GOLD	UP
GDX	*UP	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high and Bearish Engulfing.
OIL	*DOWN
ENERGY	LA	2 Doji in a row, doesn’t look good.
FINANCIALS	*LA	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	*LA	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging and IYR to SPX ratio too high. 3.4.1 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily): Hollow red bar, pullback?
MATERIALS	UP	2 hollow red bars in a row, pullback?

*LA = Lateral Trend.

dreampen

沙发沙发

demand

rosyrosy

graceabrams

like2swing

thanks. very early today.

babyruth

everest001

IMeMyself

thanks

tonyshen

tonyshen

soulvirus

darren168

thanks

tortose

thanks

西安

Bencat

skipjack

Thanks

Langtaojin

Ding!

Jeff

Thanks!

happyface

thanks