Is this true?

ppteam

"Bloomberg just reported there is a rumor Fed will try to save another big bank by Monday. Didn't say which one"

xiaobailong

LEH?

ppteam

I don't know; some guy told me and ran away.

layworld

LEH goes to $2!!! :))

CoolMax

完了，真的不止一只。

 

ppteam

If this is indeed true, it should be either LEH or MER, based on the big put vols. Those guys ALWAYS know something big first.

Cobra

layworld

原帖由 ppteam 于 2008-3-28 16:14 发表 If this is indeed true, it should be either LEH or MER, based on the big put vols. Those guys ALWAYS know something big first.

 

Will this be the trigger of sell-off?

ppteam

It should, I guess.

layworld

原帖由 ppteam 于 2008-3-28 16:23 发表 It should, I guess.

 

my account now is p/c = 3/7, seems need closes calls and add puts next week...

kmyc

LEH looks more like it ... MER is relatively stable as I understood. Yet, I strongly doubt whether this is a bear trap: essentially similar stories can be on again and again, but not exactly in the identical way.

Let me discuss a possible scenario here: this time FED and the mainstream investment banks are luring bears in by deliberately spreading rumors, so tons and tons of shorts and puts are now on LEH and MER. Yet on Monday or Tuesday (more exactly FOOL's DAY) positive news will come out, and shorts get squeezed atrociously... Indeed, they can drop considerably after the shorts are slaughtered, at least the April puts need to be killed...

Last time before BSC hit the iceberg, not too many people knows it. Those who bought huge amounts of puts, I suspect, are the insiders. The mass retail investors/speculators learned about the whole thing later and really regretted it. This time, the mass retail investors/speculators are pouring in to establish their short positions on LEH and MER on publicly available info (somebody has been finger-pointing since last week). This cannot be that simple and straightforward...

Based on the common wisdom that the majority always gets slapped, I suspect this is a bear-trap... I can be very wrong... [ 本帖最后由 kmyc 于 2008-3-28 16:39 编辑 ]

layworld

原帖由 kmyc 于 2008-3-28 16:38 发表 LEH looks more like it ... MER is relatively stable as I understood. Yet, I strongly doubt whether this is a bear trap: essentially similar stories can be on again and again, but not exactly in th ...

afewgoodman

Where did you see it?

kmyc

Mega-speculating!

ppteam

原帖由 kmyc 于 2008-3-28 16:38 发表 LEH looks more like it ... MER is relatively stable as I understood. Yet, I strongly doubt whether this is a bear trap: essentially similar stories can be on again and again, but not exactly in th ...

Last time some guys made a fortune from BSC puts. Now they are investigating it.

quickcow

Very convincing analysis from "kmyc".

bayliner1979

Or it may be WM, or even MS.

WM is the weakest of all mid-large cap banks with counters.
Also don't think MS's condition is significantly better than LEH and MER, but so far MS is immune to bad news, which will appear sooner or later.

原帖由 kmyc 于 2008-3-28 16:38 发表 LEH looks more like it ... MER is relatively stable as I understood. Yet, I strongly doubt whether this is a bear trap: essentially similar stories can be on again and again, but not exactly in th ...

kmyc

Thank you... Yet even if it sounds ten times more convincing, it is still a forecast.
According to Mr. Warren Buffet, "A forecast tells a lot about who makes the forecast, and little about the future."

I cannot praise this summary more... [ 本帖最后由 kmyc 于 2008-3-28 17:10 编辑 ]

kmyc

Man you said it!!! WM is actually more likely. FED cannot afford another mega investment bank collapsing. And both LEH and MER have access to the 200 Billion lending stuff, so they cannot be as bad as BSC. Yet WM is much smaller and according to my limited knowledge, also suffered big loss in the subprime storm. The same blow that hecks off a limb from LEH or MER, can simply cut WM in half...

bayliner1979

Also cannot exclude MS.

MS is in trouble right now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5mdE0pmpUkk&refer=home

Morgan Stanley is seeking $7.5 billion to replace $11 billion of
credit that expires on April 16, Reuters reported earlier today,
citing unidentified sources close to the situation. Lenders are only
willing to extend about $4.9 billion.

原帖由 kmyc 于 2008-3-28 17:16 发表 Man you said it!!! WM is actually more likely. FED cannot afford another mega investment bank collapsing. And both LEH and MER have access to the 200 Billion lending stuff, so they cannot be as bad ...