哭爹了，叫娘了，老秋掖不喊了，那，俺来一句？

firecs

感谢小小草，分析的有理有据。

个人感觉12600会先到

小小草

没有任何地方看出你现在应该SHORT。然而，对多方来讲，后继的RALLY一定要不抱幻想的，好不手软的SELL INTO THE RALLY。

如果没有明天就业报告这个不确定因素，近几天应该是一个继续上攻的行情。NDX/TRAN/SOX/RLX 带领大盘上涨，NDX率先高占在200MA上，继续看到健康稳健的板块互动，如果不是SOX/RLX/XLF还低于200MA<this makes huge difference)，没有比这更BULLISH的板块结构了。

Dow closes at 13K, the next 200pts 将由能源股及其他商品类股票领导完成.

 DUG，I would get out on any further strength.  HUI is head-n-shoulder with a 360 taget, I think HUI is a good short if it rebounds to 410s.

I am more and more inclined to see a short setup that would last for weeks ahead and I am aiming at retailer and financials. but I see short term the market will continue to squeeze the shorts for a while.

 欧以前也表过态，在SPX1430俺要无脑盲从秋之皓月。

继续母鸡。Miss is better than mistake.

原帖由 小小草 于 2008-4-26 13:55 发表 要回到熊熊的日子还早了点. 俺清仓更多是基于自己的实际情况. 现在是多头利用ER继续对空头施加压力的时候,短期应该是继续上走的行情. 还会有人人为worst is over而加入近来.Watch OIH, the signal is OIH and USO di ...

大泡泡

还是您老厉害。 俺放弃得早了点。 学习学习。

短期空袭警报

DOW stands above 200MA following NDX.

 

Today's COMP reversal is typical after creating a local high, considering the mild volume, this retreat doesn't indicate any sort of meaningful reversal is immenient.

 

Sentiment still favors further rally, still a lot of people don't believe this too quick,too much thing, shorts have to prepare for further torture ahead.

 

Commodities snapped back on a US$ up day, I am not surprised to see oil revisit $120 a second time. The head-n-shoulder TA target for DUG is $26-27.

 

I see short term current market is still a buy on dip scenario, say COMP pulls back to 2400s. I still see SPX visits 1430 area short term.

 

Stock cruises higher, commodity snaps back, probably sometime in mid May, all assets start sell-off, that make more sense if the claim we are in a recession is true.

 

Don't read too much into Put / Call too much on a daily basis, it is hard to tell whether traders are opening new positions or just closing the existiong positions.

 

Again, for longs any futher rally from current level should be sold relentlessly into, but DON'T JUMP THE SHORT GUN. It takes a while to form a mid-term top. I am waiting for a up day with huge volume and sharp decline in VIX.

 

 

 

Day 25: DJI closed @ 13059, +1000 target reached by 84.2% < intra-day reached 91.6% >

Day 20: DJI closed @ 12891, +1000 target reached by 67.5%

Day 15: DJI closed @ 12849, +1000 target reached by 63.3%
Day 10: DJI closed @ 12325, +1000 target reached by 10,9%
Day 5: DJI closed @ 12609, +1000 target reached by 39,3%
Day 0: DJI closed @ 12216, +1000 target reached by 0%

 

 

 

 

原帖由 小小草 于 2008-5-1 20:51 发表 没有任何地方看出你现在应该SHORT。然而，对多方来讲，后继的RALLY一定要不抱幻想的，好不手软的SELL INTO THE RALLY。 如果没有明天就业报告这个不确定因素，近几天应该是一个继续上攻的行情。NDX/TRAN/SOX/RLX 带领 ...

[ 本帖最后由 短期空袭警报 于 2008-5-2 17:21 编辑 ]

ewbp

赞，漂亮的市场分析！

赞，非常有想象力的IDsssssssssss！

原帖由 短期空袭警报 于 2008-5-2 17:18 发表 DOW stands above 200MA following NDX.   Today's COMP reversal is typical after creating a local high, considering the mild volume, this retreat doesn't indicate any sort of meaningful reversal ...

shyuan

I agree with you，SPX还有up 的余地，至于NAZ么，不是还有板块轮换这么一说么？呵呵。。它当然可以自己在那里回调，然后DJI和SPX继续rally。。。

 

至少有这可能。。今天的reversal其实不是啥了不得的－－蜡烛图成为－－上升抵抗（当然也有形成star的潜质）。。。不过，如果NAZ继续rally，突破up trendline，那就很bearish了--没有打错字－－如果NAZ继续rally，突破uptrendline－－could be very bearish！

 

不过，对于bulls，现在是鱼尾巴了，何必这个时候进去自找不确定性？要入也等个好点的入点－－大的回调已经在horizon上了，what will you do？

 

 

 

[ 本帖最后由 shyuan 于 2008-5-2 17:57 编辑 ]

CoolMax

原帖由 shyuan 于 2008-5-2 13:43 发表 I agree with you，SPX还有up 的余地，至于NAZ么，不是还有板块轮换这么一说么？呵呵。。它当然可以自己在那里回调，然后down和SPX继续rally。。。   至少有这可能。。今天的reversal其实不是啥了不得的－－蜡 ...

 

Bearish or Bullish?

xiaobailong

恭喜小小草拿了一颗红钻

短期空袭警报

无功不受禄， 妹妹您张冠李戴了。

 

 

原帖由 xiaobailong 于 2008-5-2 17:49 发表 恭喜小小草拿了一颗红钻

xiaobailong

原帖由 短期空袭警报 于 2008-5-2 17:53 发表 无功不受禄， 妹妹您张冠李戴了。

啊？ 既然如此，我恭喜小小草得红钻，你这个回复算怎么回事呢？

CoolMax

:(13):

还在发呆

红钻

短期空袭警报

Iran started using Yen in Asia and Euro in Europe in oil trading. I personally think, 已经触及美国的底线。 中东的不确定因素依然存在，不可不小心。要烧OIL 的股票，一定要等到：1〉大盘相对高水平，可能回调。2〉ＯＩＨ和ＵＳＯ　Ｄｉｖｅｒｇｅ。　两者缺一不可。

主题阅读：在下一盘很大的棋- DUG [版面： 股海弄潮] [首篇作者：djinwa] , 2008年05月02日18:54:47 [分页： 1 ]

djinwa 进入未名形象秀 我的博客 [回复文章] [回信给作者] [本篇全文] [进入讨论区] [返回顶部] [修改文章] [删除文章] [转寄] [转贴] [ 1 ] 发信人: djinwa (天坑赌命), 信区: Stock 标 题: 在下一盘很大的棋- DUG 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 2 18:54:47 2008) 胜败在几十万之间。 欢迎石头。 -- ※ 来源:·WWW 未名空间站 海外: mitbbs.com 中国: mitbbs.cn·[FROM: 98.28.]

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djinwa 进入未名形象秀 我的博客 [回复文章] [回信给作者] [本篇全文] [进入讨论区] [返回顶部] [修改文章] [删除文章] [转寄] [转贴] [ 3 ] 发信人: djinwa (天坑赌命), 信区: Stock 标 题: Re: 在下一盘很大的棋- DUG 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 2 19:06:29 2008) 谢了。 -- ※ 来源:·WWW 未名空间站 海外: mitbbs.com 中国: mitbbs.cn·[FROM: 98.28.]

OMG168 进入未名形象秀 我的博客 [回复文章] [回信给作者] [本篇全文] [进入讨论区] [返回顶部] [修改文章] [删除文章] [转寄] [转贴] [ 4 ] 发信人: OMG168 (聚焦、聚焦、再聚焦), 信区: Stock 标 题: Re: 在下一盘很大的棋- DUG 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 2 19:09:50 2008) 不客气，人生能有几回搏 佩服楼主的气魄！ -- ※ 来源:·WWW 未名空间站 海外: mitbbs.com 中国: mitbbs.cn·[FROM: 75.83.]

ycm 进入未名形象秀 我的博客 [回复文章] [回信给作者] [本篇全文] [进入讨论区] [返回顶部] [修改文章] [删除文章] [转寄] [转贴] [ 5 ] 发信人: ycm (闲庭信步), 信区: Stock 标 题: Re: 在下一盘很大的棋- DUG 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 2 20:04:41 2008), 转信 有钱人 【 在 djinwa (天坑赌命) 的大作中提到: 】 : 胜败在几十万之间。 : 欢迎石头。 -- ※ 来源:·BBS 未名空间站 海外: mitbbs.com 中国: mitbbs.cn·[FROM: 12.151.]

dongfang1234 进入未名形象秀 我的博客 [回复文章] [回信给作者] [本篇全文] [进入讨论区] [返回顶部] [修改文章] [删除文章] [转寄] [转贴] [ 6 ] 发信人: dongfang1234 (dongfang), 信区: Stock 标 题: Re: 在下一盘很大的棋- DUG 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 2 20:48:36 2008) 跟了你,几百... -- ※ 来源:·WWW 未名空间站 海外: mitbbs.com 中国: mitbbs.cn·[FROM: 74.224.]

djinwa 进入未名形象秀 我的博客 [回复文章] [回信给作者] [本篇全文] [进入讨论区] [返回顶部] [修改文章] [删除文章] [转寄] [转贴] [ 7 ] 发信人: djinwa (天坑赌命), 信区: Stock 标 题: Re: 在下一盘很大的棋- DUG 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri May 2 21:04:03 2008) 一起发财 【 在 dongfang1234 (dongfang) 的大作中提到: 】 : 跟了你,几百... -- ※ 来源:·WWW 未名空间站 海外: mitbbs.com 中国: mitbbs.cn·[FROM: 98.28.]

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武当人

继续支持！！

短期空袭警报

由于本人一个低级和愚蠢的错误。。。。

现将 1000+ 大阳棒上调为 1500 点大阳棒 （from 12216)，时间延长两周至六月一日。

下面的任务就是去寻找支持上涨的论据，




[ 本帖最后由 短期空袭警报 于 2008-5-2 23:35 编辑 ]

武当人

继续支持！！

短期空袭警报

 

Today's market is non-descript, commodities staged a respectable fight back on oversold conditions and a weakening us dollar. Commercial traders in the euro fx market are net long large euro positions, that in combination of the strong support of FXE at $154 level doesn't support a further rally of us dollar, I expect usd will bounce between 154-160 for quite a while and as long as us dolloar's stuck in this range, I don't see high chances of commodities breaking down, I also noticed there are quite a lot commodity bubble calls in the media these days, which from a contrarian point of view is bullish for the commodity market.

 

There are somethings we need build our confidence in order to prepare for this buying on pullback setup, current rally is tech led, NDX/DOW stood above 200MA ( it doens't matter they cuold ose it soon), TRAN continue to lead the market, SOX bottomed out, SPX/INDU/COMP is inverse head-n-shouler after MACD positive divergence, low volume rally is actually bullish contrary to most people think, that indicates there are a lot of money on the sidelines. SPX P/E is pretty solid from historical perspective, bullish insider buy/sell ratio, and Warren Buffet said, the worst is behind us.

 

My buy target remains: DOW 12800s/COMP 2400s until I see things speak otherwise.

 

 

 

原帖由 短期空袭警报 于 2008-5-2 23:08 发表 由于本人一个低级和愚蠢的错误。。。。现将 1000+ 大阳棒上调为 1500 点大阳棒 （from 12216)，时间延长

两周至六月一日。下面的任务就是去寻找支持上涨的论据，

xiaobailong

原帖由 短期空袭警报 于 2008-5-5 18:03 发表   Today's market is non-descript, commodities staged a respectable fight back on oversold conditions and a weakening us dollar. Commercial traders in the euro fx market are net long large euro p ...

也就是说，DOW将会跌到12800附近然后涨回来，对吗？

xiaobailong

似乎你认为DOW和Commodities都会涨，美元基本维持在一个小范围内。这不矛盾吗？

shyuan

原帖由 短期空袭警报 于 2008-5-5 18:03 发表   Today's market is non-descript, commodities staged a respectable fight back on oversold conditions and a weakening us dollar. Commercial traders in the euro fx market are net long large euro p ...

 

专业，赞，学习ing～～

对了，我感觉现在volume应该是在说－－due to 底部的长时间震动搜集，筹码集中到mm手里去了，在外面流动的少，短期货物稀缺，呵呵。。所以才涨量小，跌量更小。。等某天跌量出来了，就小心了，那是mm开卖了。涨的时候量稳定就行，大小问题不大，只要不越涨量越小（divergence）就好。my sense

 

 

 

 

 

[ 本帖最后由 shyuan 于 2008-5-5 18:56 编辑 ]