2008 之后的银行业

重耳

原帖由 danny1025 于 2008-3-29 14:13 发表     if you think you are the only one know what's going on, go ahead and buy bank stock for long.haha...DOW holds 12000 means nothing... for how long? 3 weeks? 2 month? you think GS, LE ...

 

All Right. We all have a point of some sorts, right?

 

I don't care where DOW goes, none of my business as it is a whole market inception and actually doesn't mean anything. It could drop to 10000 and I bet it would be back by the year end.

 

You probably don't know what that 200 billion loans Fed offered to banks mean, but I worked with security lending department closely and you probably want to check what we requires for colleteral couple months aga and what we requires now. It reflect confidence in Investment industry itself how they see themselves in this crisis. A lot of stock positions are not reflected in the market as sale, so investors actually don't see the large block of shares investment banks move everyday. Because it is "lending", a new creature for I bank to transfer shares with cheaper fee in a way that almost invisable.

 

I talk with people in GS, MS, Merril, Barclay, LEH, Millinieum, JPM, C, UBS almost everyday.

 

When general public doubted about LEH would follow BSC, we are laughing to see how people don't understand the business of Lehman Brothers.

 

BSC crashed because it is a pure investment bank, what they do is to borrow money and invest. Citi bank, bank of America, as long as there are no running on bank, I am not afraid. They have strong assets base.

 

yes, I would buy back Financials soon, and yes it would be down more.

 

Just my opinion and what I know here to share with everyone and what I know

 

personally I would like everyone to sell now:)

重耳

原帖由 danny1025 于 2008-3-29 14:17 发表   Looks like you are a short term option gambler, we are in different boat, let's stop this issure here. 

 

I wish I were short term gambler. 

 

I am a value investor, but here in hutong to learn from those short term trade expert. Still learning things I don't know, but to share things I did know

 

Still learning, but frankly in recession market, market doesn't always go with tech analysis, not fundemental as well, but market confidence.

 

 

danny1025

原帖由 重耳 于 2008-3-29 14:43 发表   All Right. We all have a point of some sorts, right?   I don't care where DOW goes, none of my business as it is a whole market inception and actually doesn't mean anything. It could ...

 

 

then, you would buy LEH when it drops to 20's, well, thanks for sharing, you work in investment bank, i work for retail, maybe combine our idea would find out what's going on here.

 

 

重耳

Unfortunately I am not allowed to buy LEH:(

 

but did gain some changes in BSC since they are not my counterparties

重耳

yes, Retail banking reflect true economic situation that recession is coming, maybe in 2009 2008 should be okie according to our top strategiest, the weirdo who started to trade since he was born 60 some years ago...

binbincloud

银行倒了，我的工作怎么办哦。

katharinezl

So what make the difference between BSC and LEH?

 

 

原帖由 重耳 于 2008-3-29 14:43 发表   All Right. We all have a point of some sorts, right?   I don't care where DOW goes, none of my business as it is a whole market inception and actually doesn't mean anything. It could ...

Yiso

记得大本说过要有几家银行倒闭。

xiaobailong

原帖由 Yiso 于 2008-3-29 19:05 发表 记得大本说过要有几家银行倒闭。

大苯说过吗？是别人说的吧？

newtrader1234

原帖由 重耳 于 2008-3-29 14:43 发表 All Right. We all have a point of some sorts, right? I don't care where DOW goes, none of my business as it is a whole market inception and actually doesn't mean anything. It could ...

I work for one of them. From what I see, the problem is all about the balance sheet for now. there is enough media coverage on this topic already. subprime is one issue, now ppl are concerned about LBO loans. so they should. residential MBS (subprimes, alt-a included) are hedged, while commercial MBS are not hedged as it could not be hedged (per one CFO).

M&A fee income would go down for sure.

trading profits, come from two parts: market making and directional bet. you know ibanks derive a small portion of trading income from betting on the market and traders are discouraged to take directional positions. we get most from trading spreads, either from stock daytraders, or sophisticated CDS buyers. in short, we need volume. this is where we see shrinking too. i think we saw this across all previous bear markets.

another source of income is prime brokerage. not sure about other banks, we are adding more control over the leverage hedgies could get from us. that means less margin loan interests.

of course, if this is 1998 once again, IBs would recover quickly. but i think it is very optimistic.
[ 本帖最后由 newtrader1234 于 2008-3-29 19:55 编辑 ]

pinball

原帖由 newtrader1234 于 2008-3-29 19:51 发表 I work for one of them. From what I see, the problem is all about the balance sheet for now. there is enough media coverage on this topic already. subprime is one issue, now ppl are concerned about LB ...

 

 

欢迎更多的朋友来到胡同居住。

重耳

原帖由 newtrader1234 于 2008-3-29 19:51 发表 I work for one of them. From what I see, the problem is all about the balance sheet for now. there is enough media coverage on this topic already. subprime is one issue, now ppl are concerned about LB ...

 

I sort of agree with you since I know a deposit based on retail banking would consider about market risk and won't trade aggresively.

 

I believe the trick is really Subprime mortage pricing which I find funny enough, different banks have different valuation method, so basically there are rooms for accounting manipulation, but banks are not brave enough to make up numbers, that's why they would post beating estimate result while decling profit.

 

I used to be a bear viewer about the market until the shocking Fed move last couple weeks.....

 

The only uncertaincy I have right now is that whether Fed would want to save the market for intermediate term which seems like to be the case recently

重耳

原帖由 katharinezl 于 2008-3-29 16:56 发表 So what make the difference between BSC and LEH?    

 

LEH has enough cash while BSC doesn't

 

LEH actually didn't hurt much by subprime, the down trend is most related to entire Financial sector downward movement

liuyifei

牛人！

原帖由 danny1025 于 2008-3-28 19:49 发表 我不会跟你讲怎么买,怎么卖. 只是希望我的info能让你对market多一点认知. 我在银行工作多年, 转战过美国不同的大银行, 一大帮在朋友是同业, 我想让你们知道的是: 银行业这两年的未来. 很多牛牛说,银行股到底了, 已经 ...

lisa

原帖由 danny1025 于 2008-3-28 23:58 发表   why? bank industry bad doesn't mean I will lose my job, don't even need to worry! you thinked wrong way. dont think everyone here is misleading people, I am just telling everyone the t ...

     你的观点和我一个在 IB 的朋友很接近. 看来这个是很大的 warning.

goldman2007

BAC 90-91头肩后走的是V型反转。银行里的员工那时都知道能这么走吗？

danny1025

原帖由 goldman2007 于 2008-8-4 22:53 发表 BAC 90-91头肩后走的是V型反转。银行里的员工那时都知道能这么走吗？

不知道你怎么玩股票, 我讲的是大趋势, 你倒讲起了BAC 90-91? 哈哈, 那请你讲讲对UYG接下来的走势!!!! 讲讲明天的,这个月的, 今天的, 还有未来三年的...不要客气噢.........哈哈哈.

danny1025

看了这位的帖, 我也明白为什么了. 怪不得市场上有人陪到阿妈都不认得了,还认为自已是对的. 也对, 没有这么多这样的人, 花街跟谁去赚钱,

coffee

换个思路想一想，大批的银行会倒闭，今后的Banking Business会越来越集中到JPM和BAC这两家， 也就是这两家的股价反而有很大上涨的空间

goldman2007

原帖由 danny1025 于 2008-8-5 00:13 发表 看了这位的帖, 我也明白为什么了. 怪不得市场上有人陪到阿妈都不认得了,还认为自已是对的. 也对, 没有这么多这样的人, 花街跟谁去赚钱,

 

你也别误导人，我在银行很多朋友，大多数人根本对股票不精通。就跟在IT里的人猜不到00年IT崩盘一个道理。做OPTION的很喜欢FINANCE，因为波动极大。这次7月这么大的量进入FINANCE，想马上崩掉，很难。