09/20/2010 大盘回顾 （Head and Shoulders Bottom Breakout?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up, I hold partial long position over night. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 9/23 09/23 / 09/23 Week of 09/24 Next pivot date: 09/21 – 09/23

BULLISH 09/17 Market Recap: Down 3 weeks then up 3 weeks, the 8th and 9th week is statistically bullish. *0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. BEARISH *1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 18 unfilled gaps, the max was 18. AAII is way too bullish.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model 09/20 L 1.9*ATR(10) *Long on any pullback tomorrow, the stop loss will be 1.9*ATR(10).

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SHORT-TERM: MINI PRICE TARGET SPX 1158, TIME TARGET 09/21

 

没说的，market选择了向上突破，因此如果我们还是在地球上的话，a forward accelerating car must slow down before it can be reversed，所以下面应该还有的涨，直到下一个small bar consolidation area (means slow down)才可能反转。下面是按最最熊的走法估算的price and time target。注意，不是预测会这么走，而是说，如果按最最熊的走法还能有一定的涨幅的话，那么这段时间牛牛应该是安全的。其中09/21正好符合09/17 Market Recap里提到的09/21 to 09/23 time window，所以我觉得如果要变盘的话，在09/21 to 09/23之间的可能性最大。Again，这是最最熊的走法，assume 09/21 to 09/23 is THE TOP。如果intermediate-term是2 to 3 leg up的话，09/21 to 09/23的time window就不是什么重要的时间点了，虽然market还是可能在这个时间点附近发生pullback，我只会认为是overbought后的pullback碰巧发生在这个time window里。

 

 

最后，还是建议短期不要太bullish，今天虽然大涨了，但是并没有修正1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)里的negative divergence。这个图看着还是挺bearish的。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BULLISH FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS

We could see 2 to 3 legs up while now is the very first leg up. See 09/17 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER SEPTEMBER TRIPLE WITCHING DOW DOWN 6 OF LAST 7

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after September Triple Witching, Dow down 6 of last 7. Five in a row 2002 – 2006 with heavy losses 2002 – 2005. Also see September’s Triple Witching for more statistics.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM	UP
CHINA
EMERGING	*UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	*UP
CANADA	*UP	TOADV MA(10) too high plus lots of reversal like bars, pullback?
BOND	LA
EURO	LA
GOLD	UP	*Bearish reversal bar plus black bar, pullback?
GDX	LA	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high and Bearish Engulfing.
OIL	*LA
ENERGY	*UP
FINANCIALS	*UP	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging and IYR to SPX ratio too high.
MATERIALS	UP

*LA = Lateral Trend.

wbay

ding

dsp

thanks.

开小差

1st page

COS

dreampen

can2000

thanks

can2000

merci

hillcrest

thank you Cobra! time to fade the break out?

X中国陆军

Zephyr

n748

ding yixia

can2000

still 1st page!

fall2008

Summerrose

acoust

First page!

oda

PacificLegend

leftright

thanks

surya