09/21/2010 大盘回顾 （Key Day Tomorrow）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up, I hold partial long position over night. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 9/23 09/23 / 09/23 Week of 09/24 Next pivot date: 09/21 – 09/23

BULLISH 09/17 Market Recap: Down 3 weeks then up 3 weeks, the 8th and 9th week is statistically bullish. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 18 unfilled gaps, the max was 18. AAII is way too bullish. *6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish reversal day?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model 09/20 L *09/21 Low *Adjust stop loss.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SHORT-TERM: KEY DAY TOMORROW

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary里已经提了，根据过去FOMC red day的pattern，明天最好是green day，否则more pullbacks ahead。那么明天会不会是green day呢？我不知道。不过，今天的TICK很不祥，见下图，以往TICK < -840的时候都是发生在大跌的日子，而今天SPX并没有怎么跌，何以TICK closed so negative？换句话说就是大家都抢在收盘前逃命，这是不是意味着明天有什么坏消息？

 

 

短期，还是建议不要太bullish，除了我们现在已经在可能发生变盘的09/21 to 09/23 time window里以及1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)的诸多negative divergence以外，今天又有两个不是很牛牛友好的现象。

 

VIX Leads SPX，negative divergence plus cross below EMA20, will the 3rd time be the charm? 我个人觉得，这个图的可信度很高，a pullback should be imminent。

 

 

6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch，现在如果不是重复4月份的情形的话，那么应该离a top of some kind不远了。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BULLISH FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS

We could see 2 to 3 legs up while now is the very first leg up. See 09/17 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER SEPTEMBER TRIPLE WITCHING DOW DOWN 6 OF LAST 7

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after September Triple Witching, Dow down 6 of last 7. Five in a row 2002 – 2006 with heavy losses 2002 – 2005. Also see September’s Triple Witching for more statistics.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM	UP
CHINA
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	UP	*Black bar, pullback?
CANADA	*LA	TOADV MA(10) too high plus lots of reversal like bars, pullback?
BOND	*UP
EURO	*UP
GOLD	UP
GDX	*UP	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high and Bearish Engulfing.
OIL	*DOWN
ENERGY	UP
FINANCIALS	*LA	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	*LA	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging and IYR to SPX ratio too high.
MATERIALS	UP

*LA = Lateral Trend.

trender

Sf

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Sf

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板凳

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地板

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basement

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first page

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wow

wower

Thanks

trender

全是我的啦

trender

第一次抢到老大的沙发，有点得意忘形。

Thirty-cents

Thanks

oda

X中国陆军

20108

Summerrose

第一次抢到老大的沙发，有点得意忘形。
trender 发表于 2010-9-21 20:42

dreampen

Summerrose

shoujie

开小差

thx, ding