09/22/2010 大盘回顾 （Two Red Days after a Major Accumulation Day）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is confused 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is unclear and I hold no position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 9/23 09/23 / 09/23 Week of 09/24 Next pivot date: 09/21 – 09/23

BULLISH 09/17 Market Recap: Down 3 weeks then up 3 weeks, the 8th and 9th week is statistically bullish. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 18 unfilled gaps, the max was 18. AAII is way too bullish. 6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish reversal day? *6.3.1b Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 red days after MAD, more pullbacks?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A ST Model   *Stopped out of long position entered on 09/20 flat.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SHORT-TERM: TREND IS NOT CLEAR OFFICIALLY BUT I’M BEARISH BIASED

 

短期方向不明，可以说是up Price Channel也可以说是Bear Flag，要等明天才知道了。

 

 

因为chart pattern没有confirm，所以officially我不能说top was in，不过单从信号角度讲，either top was in or very close。下面简单的列下理由：

 

6.5.1a SPX and FOMC，今天的After Bell Quick Summary里已经提了，red day after a red FOMC，好像此后都有more pullbacks。当然只有3个成功的cases，所以可能不说明什么。不过，不要忘了6.3.1b Major Accumulation Day Watch，2 red day after a Major Accumulation Day，好像此后也是more pullbacks。如果说red day after a red FOMC是巧合的话，现在又加上2 red day after a Major Accumulation Day，两个同时发生，是巧合的可能性多少要小点吧？

 

 

VIX Leads SPX，今天VIX还是在EMA(20)以下，如果说昨天是whipsaw，那么今天也是whipsaw的几率就要小很多了，是吧？

 

 

1.1.1 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily)，QQQQ的hollow red bar看着也不怎么吉利。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICALLY BULLISH FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS

We could see 2 to 3 legs up while now is the very first leg up. See 09/17 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER SEPTEMBER TRIPLE WITCHING DOW DOWN 6 OF LAST 7

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, week after September Triple Witching, Dow down 6 of last 7. Five in a row 2002 – 2006 with heavy losses 2002 – 2005. Also see September’s Triple Witching for more statistics.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high. *1.1.1 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ Daily): Hollow red bar, pullback?
IWM	*DOWN
CHINA
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high. *1.4.1 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Daily): Black bar under resistance, pullback?
EUROPEAN	UP	*2 black bars in a row, pullback?
CANADA	*DOWN	TOADV MA(10) too high plus lots of reversal like bars, pullback?
BOND	UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP
GDX	UP	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high and Bearish Engulfing.
OIL	DOWN
ENERGY	*DOWN	*2 reversal like bars rejected by MA(200), doesn’t look good.
FINANCIALS	*DOWN	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	*DOWN	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging and IYR to SPX ratio too high.
MATERIALS	UP

*LA = Lateral Trend.

ppteam

safa

ppteam

最近统计都不灵了。

rosyrosy

bandeng

MtlJaysFan

Thanks a lot, Cobra laoda

STEVEN

先搶再看

我是谁

big long snaky bandeng

hi-liter

谢谢老蛇昨天的回复。

graceabrams

vicvic

atrader

thanks

yaobooyao

等着SPY 111.5 gap 。

20108

goodmood

Thanks.

IMeMyself

thanks

darren168

Thanks

n748

ding. Top is not in yet. mad cow run isn't over.

ideall

Zephyr

happyface

thx