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[技术分析] 09/27/2010 大盘回顾 (Watch SPX 1148 and 1122)

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发表于 2010-9-27 06:40 PM | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up but I hold no long position overnight.
GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
9/23,10/10-10/11 09/23 / 09/23 Week of 09/24, 09/28 Next pivot date: 09/21 – 09/23, 09/28 – 10/01
BULLISH 09/17 Market Recap: Down 3 weeks then up 3 weeks, the 8th and 9th week is statistically bullish.
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 18 unfilled gaps, the max was 18.
09/23 Market Recap: AAII is way too bullish.
09/23 Market Recap: SPX 3 consecutive down days means more pullback?
6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index > 100, pullback?
6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch and 6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch: Bearish next week.
*6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish at least short-term?
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24.
ST Model 09/24 L 1.9*ATR(10)

 

SHORT-TERM: WATCH SPX 1148 and 1122

 

今天没什么好说的,短期方向不明,要看SPX 1148 and 1122谁先破:

  1. Decisively close above 1148,那么继续牛。当然牛到什么程度,需要点想象力,see intermediate-term session below。
  2. Decisively close below 1122则可能是Double Top or 1-2-3 Trend Change pattern,是典型的short setup。

SPY60min.png

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH, BUT NEED SOME IMAGINATION TO FORESEE HOW BULLISH

 

Intermediate-term是uptrend,这一点无可争议,see 09/17 Market Recap and 09/24 Market Recap for back test results。不过,how bullish,老实说,需要一点想象力,我这里没有答案,大家自由发挥,呵呵。一方面下面的关于POMO的统计几乎guarantee三个月内大涨特涨,另一方面占Nasdaq 100 20%以上的AAPL已经too stretched了,过去这么stretch,结果都不好,难道这次会例外?

 

先看一下关于POMO的统计:

 

According to Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) from Trading the Odds, since we’ve had more than 9 POMO within the last 20 trading days so the market should be up huge (more than 10%) in the next 3 months. The chart below is copied from Trading the Odds for completeness purpose.

 

POMO.png

 

再看看过去几次AAPL这么stretch以后都发生了什么?

 

AAPLTooStretched.png

 

SEASONALITY: LAST TRADING WEEK OF MONTH WAS GENERALLY BEARISH

See 09/24 Market Recap for more details.

 


HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
TREND COMMENT
QQQQ *LA 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM UP Morning Star?
CHINA  
EMERGING UP 4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
CANADA *LA TOADV MA(10) too high, pullback?
BOND *UP 4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Morning Doji Star?
EURO UP
GOLD UP *2 black Bar in a row, pullback?
GDX *DOWN 4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL UP *Bearish reversal bar, pullback?
ENERGY *LA *Bearish reversal bar?
FINANCIALS *DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
*3.4.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Bearish reversal bar?
REITS *DOWN 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
*3.4.1 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily): Bearish reversal bar?
MATERIALS *LA *Bearish reversal bar?
  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update.
  4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. LA = Lateral Trend.

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发表于 2010-9-27 06:41 PM | 显示全部楼层
沙发,好久不见的沙发!
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发表于 2010-9-27 06:41 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-9-27 06:42 PM | 显示全部楼层
ddddddddddd
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发表于 2010-9-27 06:42 PM | 显示全部楼层
thanks laoda
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发表于 2010-9-27 06:43 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-9-27 06:47 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-9-27 06:47 PM | 显示全部楼层
thanks
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发表于 2010-9-27 06:48 PM | 显示全部楼层
1st page?
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发表于 2010-9-27 06:49 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-9-27 06:51 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-9-27 06:52 PM | 显示全部楼层
回复 1# Cobra


    thanks alot, lao da Cobra.
    we newcomers have learned alot  from you!
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发表于 2010-9-27 06:52 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-9-27 06:53 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-9-27 06:58 PM | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-9-27 06:58 PM | 显示全部楼层



...
Cobra 发表于 2010-9-27 20:40

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发表于 2010-9-27 07:01 PM | 显示全部楼层
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