09/28/2010 大盘回顾 （Ascending Triangle?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up but I hold no long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/10-10/11 10/07 : 10/08 Week of 09/24, 09/28 Next pivot date: 09/28 – 10/01, 10/08 – 10/11

BULLISH 09/17 Market Recap: Down 3 weeks then up 3 weeks, the 8th and 9th week is statistically bullish. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means huge up in 3 months. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 18 unfilled gaps, the max was 18. 09/23 Market Recap: AAII is way too bullish. 09/23 Market Recap: SPX 3 consecutive down days means more pullback? 6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index > 100, pullback? 6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch and 6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch: Bearish this week. 6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish at least short-term? 09/27 Market Recap: AAPL is now too stretched.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L 1.9*ATR(10)

 

SHORT-TERM: BULLS ON OFFENSE BUT BEARS MAY STILL HAVE CHANCES

 

短期依然方向不明，还是看SPX 1148 and 1122，谁先破(See 09/27 Market Recap for more details)。目前，牛牛暂时占优，可能整了个Ascending Triangle，如果明天能breakout且up HUGE的话，熊熊又得等下一个盘整区才有反攻的机会了。

 

 

当然熊熊也不是完全没有机会，除了根据6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch，short at today’s close cover before 09/30 close有12 out of 13的机会以外，还有两个图稍稍对熊熊有利。

 

VIX Leads SPX。这个图的divergence有点大，因此有一定的可信度。

 

 

CPCI a little too high，虽然还不是非常high，但是看起来已经有足够的edge了。

 

 

有读者问，what happened when both VIX and SPX closed in green？See chart below, just a little little little little bearish biased toward tomorrow.

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH, BUT NEED SOME IMAGINATION TO FORESEE HOW BULLISH

See 09/27 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: LAST TRADING WEEK OF MONTH WAS GENERALLY BEARISH

See 09/24 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ	LA	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM	UP
CHINA
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
CANADA	*UP	TOADV MA(10) too high, pullback?
BOND	UP	4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Morning Doji Star?
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP	2 black Bar in a row, pullback?
GDX	*UP	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL	*LA	Bearish reversal bar, pullback?
ENERGY	*UP	Bearish reversal bar plus Hanging Man?
FINANCIALS	*LA	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming? 3.4.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Bearish reversal bar?
REITS	*LA	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging. 3.4.1 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily): Bearish reversal bar?
MATERIALS	LA	Bearish reversal bar?

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update.
4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. LA = Lateral Trend.

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