09/29/2010 大盘回顾 （Breakout Wanted ASAP!）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is CONFUSED 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is not clear, I hold partial long overnight because the mini price target hasn’t met, not because it’s safe to hold overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/10-10/11 10/07 : 10/08 Week of 09/24, 09/28 Next pivot date: 09/28 – 10/01, 10/08 – 10/11

BULLISH 09/17 Market Recap: Down 3 weeks then up 3 weeks, the 8th and 9th week is statistically bullish. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means huge up in 3 months. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 18 unfilled gaps, the max was 18. 09/23 Market Recap: AAII is way too bullish. 09/23 Market Recap: SPX 3 consecutive down days means more pullback? 6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index > 100, pullback? 6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch and 6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch: Bearish this week. 6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish at least short-term? 09/27 Market Recap: AAPL is now too stretched.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L 1.9*ATR(10)

 

SHORT-TERM: BULLS NEED A BREAKOUT, THE LONGER THE CONSOLIDATION THE WORSE THE CHANCES

 

短期方向不明，还是要看SPX 1148 and 1122谁先破(See 09/27 Market Recap for more details)。如标题，牛牛需要尽快突破，盘整的时间越长，对牛牛越不利，至少下面的图是这么说的，自2009年三月以来，平均盘整5天就开始big pullback，现在已经用掉3天了。换句话说，熊熊只要能再坚持2到3天不让牛牛up huge的话，就是胜利。

 

 

1.0.1 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min)，算是Ascending Triangle confirm了，现在就看明天牛牛能不能突破了。注意，一定要up huge，否则还是可以看作是consolidation，而根据上面的图，consolidation是对牛牛不利的。今天的After Bell Quick Summary，顺便说，值得看看，因为a potential Firework trading setup could be triggered，如果真是这样的话，牛牛是有机会up huge的。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH, BUT NEED SOME IMAGINATION TO FORESEE HOW BULLISH

See 09/27 Market Recap for more details.

 

SEASONALITY: LAST TRADING WEEK OF MONTH WAS GENERALLY BEARISH

See 09/24 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ	LA	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM	UP
CHINA
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
CANADA	UP	TOADV MA(10) too high, pullback?
BOND	*LA	4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Morning Doji Star?
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP
GDX	UP	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL	*UP
ENERGY	UP
FINANCIALS	*DOWN	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	*DOWN	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
MATERIALS	*DOWN

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update.
4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. LA = Lateral Trend.

xz214

xz214

xz214

windy

thanks

aimei

so sleepy, be back
DDDDDDDDDDDDDD

X中国陆军

IMeMyself

re and thanks

n748

go to 1218 by Friday, 1075 is too conservative.

妞妞

先顶后看

ideall

萧秋水

辛苦了,多谢!     看图周五突破.

妞妞

先顶后看
妞妞 发表于 2010-9-29 18:00

好像牛牛略占上风

dreampen

谢谢。。。好像牛牛赢面大

t-k

slcgh

NewMember

Thanks!

everest001

fara

不升级也定

happyface

熊熊必胜。我没仓位拿cash呀。