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SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
Partial profits on 09/24. |
ST Model |
09/24 L |
1.9*ATR(10) |
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SHORT-TERM: BEARISH BIASED, NOT SURE IF THERE STILL IS ONE MORE PUSH UP THOUGH
周五又整了个黑棒棒,这样就是5 reversal bars in a row (Bearish Reversal Bar, Hanging Man, Hollow Red Bar, Bearish Reversal Bar, Black Bar),且是the 3rd black bar,我的问题是:前两个黑棒棒都失败了,那么,第三次会不会不一样?
不要忘了,周五已经是第五天盘整了,而盘整,多数情况下都是对牛牛不利的,虽然也有breakout的case。Time is ticking……
下面的图来自StockTiming,注意黑圈圈,本周虽然SPX不断的higher high,但是institutional selling也在不断增加,这种negative divergence往往是大跌的前兆。
当然,无论是从consolidation chart above或者institutional selling chart above看,都不能完全排除我们现在是repeat今年四月份的情形,这也是为什么我在周五的After Bell Quick Summary里特意提及,可能Ending Diagonal Triangle still missing one more push up的原因,毕竟在intermediate-term还是uptrend的情况下,看熊,最好要prepare对熊最最worst的case。
下面的图是可能的pivot date分析,不排除09/30 was the top的可能。但是:
- 以calendar day取Fib 38.2% time extension from 03/06/2009 low to 04/26/2010 high的话,the next pivot date是10/02而不是以trading day计算出来的09/29。
- 以08/27为low计算出来的A = C in terms of trading day的pivot date是10/05而不是以08/25为low计算出来的10/01。
- 考虑到自2000年以来,每个月的6号附近是最容易发生pivot的统计。
因此从时间分析的角度讲,也不能排除one more push up to 10/05附近的可能。根据下面的图,顺便说,after 10/05,下一个pivot date应该在10/11附近,当然现在还无法知道是top or bottom,先放在这里,大家好有个印象(特别是有一小部份人要留意,我究竟有没有抄你们老大的东西,已经一个月过去了,time is ticking。保持沉默,或者告诉我,你中立是不行的。道理很简单,我为每天的报告做出了巨大的牺牲,你们在享受免费服务的同时,如果连个简单的判断都不愿意的话,将来我还能指望你们为我做什么?既然我明知我今后做得再好,你们也不会在意,那我为什么还要在意你们是否在胡同存在?这话说得已经够直白了吧?所以,记住,我说话是一定算话的,没有人可以例外)。如果大盘涨至10/11发生反转的话,那就太神奇了,如果你还记得我09/03 Market Recap里的分析的话。我有那么神奇吗?多半没有,所以,我猜是不会涨到10/11的,换句话说,就是最大的可能,还是10/05附近,呵呵。
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SEEMS 11%+ RISE GUARANTEED BEFORE YEAR END, I’M SKEPTICAL HOWEVER
关于未来的三个月,相信媒体已经铺天盖地的涨声一片了。从Trading the Odds关于POMO的统计,以及Bespoke关于up September plus mid-term election year的统计来看,SPX到year end涨11%+以上(above 1270)几乎是sure thing了。我个人对这个sure thing表示怀疑,正如上面short-term session提到的,除了我不sure是否还有one more push up以外,基本上,我认为我们已经非常接近一个intermediate-term correction了。换句话说,the short-term session分析得出的top, either on 09/30 or 10/05 or 10/11可能是the top。下面谈谈理由。
先看sure thing。
Trading the Odds关于POMO的统计:(see Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) for more details)
Bespoke关于up September plus mid-term election year的统计:
Now,说说我为什么expect an intermediate-term correction。
COT Report可能很多人都觉得没用,但是其中的Nasdaq 100 commercial position却是出奇得准。现在的情况是Commercial (smart money)在拼命short,而Large Spec (dumb money)在拼命的long。看看下面的Commercial Hedger Combo有多吓人就明白了,something is going on here。顺便说,如果你还记得我在09/27 Market Recap里提到的AAPL too stretched的话,应该ring a bell了。
另一个理由是AAII Bull Raito (4-week Average),这个图,我也发现是出奇的准。
下面的back test since 1962, down 3 consecutive weeks then up 4 consecutive weeks (means sharp reversal from a major bottom) then down 1 week, short at the Friday close, cover 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 weeks later at Friday close,看起来熊熊赢多输少。至少,无一例外,a lower low was guaranteed for the next week,换句话说,SPX 1132 will be broken the next week if history repeats itself again.
SEASONALITY: OCTOBER IS BULLISH
The following chart is from Bespoke.
The following chart is from Sentimentrader.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update.
- Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- LA = Lateral Trend.
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