10/04/2010 大盘回顾 （What does QQQQ down 6 consecutive days mean?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is down but I hold no short overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/10-10/11 10/07 : 10/08 09/28 Next pivot date: 09/28 – 10/05, 10/11

BULLISH 09/17 Market Recap: Down 3 weeks then up 3 weeks, the 8th and 9th week is statistically bullish. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 18 unfilled gaps, the max was 18. 09/23 Market Recap: AAII is way too bullish. 09/23 Market Recap: SPX 3 down days in a row means 79% chances to close below 09/23 close in 10 days. 6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index > 100, pullback? 6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch and 6.5.2c Week Seasonality Watch: Bearish this week. 6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish at least short-term? 09/27 Market Recap: AAPL is now too stretched. 10/01 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/01 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L 1.9*ATR(10)

 

SHORT-TERM: DIRECTION NOT CLEAR, COULD BE A BEAR FLAG IN THE FORMING THOUGH

 

今天的下跌啥也不说明，还是在最近的consolidation range以内，所以短期方向不明。如果明天大涨特涨，我也不会觉得奇怪，因为基本上reversal of reversal of reversal （此处省略n个reversal of reversal）就是trend transition period的特征。在market能够连续几天持续向一个方向运动前，我只能说，market is in a topping process，目前形势稍稍对熊熊有利，因为看起来可能是个Bear Flag，因此continue down的可能性稍微大一点儿。

 

 

不知不觉中，QQQQ已经down 6 days in a row了，这个绝对不是strong uptrend的特征，从下面的图(highlighted in red)就可以看出来了，基本上都是在一个intermediate-term down trend中才会出现down 6 days in a row的情况。

 

 

下面的back test since 1990, QQQQ down 6 days in a row, buy at today’s close, sell 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 10 days later，可以看到down 6 days in a row并不保证明天或者后天就反弹，并且也不保证2周或者4周后bright，draw down可能高达13%。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SEEMS 11%+ RISE GUARANTEED BEFORE YEAR END, I’M SKEPTICAL HOWEVER

See 10/01 Market Recap for details.

 

SEASONALITY: OCTOBER IS BULLISH

See 10/01 Market Recap for October Seasonality chart.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ	*DOWN	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM	*LA
CHINA
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
CANADA	*LA
BOND	LA
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP
GDX	*DOWN	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL	UP	*Bearish reversal bar, pullback?
ENERGY	*LA
FINANCIALS	*LA	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
MATERIALS	*DOWN

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update.
4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. LA = Lateral Trend.

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