10/06/2010 大盘回顾 （Mini SPX Target 1173?）

Cobra

 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up and I hold partial long position overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/10-10/11 10/07 : 10/08 10/11 Next pivot date: 10/05 – 10/11

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/05 Market Recap: 16 more trading days upswing? BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 19 unfilled gaps, the max is 19. 09/23 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days means 79% chances to close below 09/23 close in 10 days.  Failed! 09/27 Market Recap: AAPL is now too stretched. 10/01 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/01 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L Breakeven

 

SHORT-TERM: SPX MINI PRICE TARGET 1173, PIVOT DATE AROUND 10/11

 

昨天说了，只要今天不大跌，我就认为昨天的breakout有效，这样，就是确认短期bullish。根据昨天的说法，如果重复今年4月份的话，那么可能还有16 trading days的upswing (doesn’t mean up 16 days in a row)。明天是又一个确认breakout有效的机会，必须涨，否则根据下面的图，2 consecutive red days after a Major Accumulation Day was a bad sign.

 

 

今天没啥好写的，因此就对下面可能的price and time target做个猜测吧，for fun only。我本人trading从来不会仅仅根据这些纯属猜测的price and time target做决定的。

 

SPX mini price target should be above 1173.

 

我在HERE曾将讨论过INDU Leads Market，这个现象据我观察现在依然有效。见下图，INDU已经breakout above 05/13 high了，因此这可能意味着SPX最终也会breakout above its 05/13 high at 1173。

 

 

The next pivot date ranges from 10/05 to 10/11. 

 

下面的图展示了pivot date ranges from 10/05 to 10/11的依据。我不sure这些pivot date是否意味着the top或者仅仅是small pivot或者根本没有用，我只是觉得这些时间点重要，因此有必要让大家知道。顺便说，有读者问，为什么要分析pivot date？这个，pivot date就跟resistance一样，只不过pivot date是resistance in terms time，所以跟resistance一样，it might or might not work。但是，没有人会因为resistance sometimes doesn’t work而认为resistance没用吧？Time resistance分析也是同样的道理啊。

1. Multiple Gann Day confluences on 10/05, 10/06, 10/10 and 10/11。
2. 统计上，每个月的6号和11号发生trend change的可能性很大。
3. The next 39 trading day (or 56 calendar day) cycle due on 10/11.
4. A = C in terms of trading days was due on 10/05.
5. New Moon on 10/07.
6. Solar Term date on 10/08.
7. SPX hit all time high on 10/11/2007.

 

除了上面的诸多理由以外，还有一个很重要的理由就是Non Farm Payroll on 10/08，从下面的图看，Non Farm Payroll附近是pivot day的可能性非常大，特别是如果当天是red day的话。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SEEMS 11%+ RISE GUARANTEED BEFORE YEAR END, I’M SKEPTICAL HOWEVER

See 10/01 Market Recap for details.

 

SEASONALITY: OCTOBER IS BULLISH

See 10/01 Market Recap for October Seasonality chart.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ	*LA	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM	UP
CHINA
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
CANADA	UP	TOADV MA(10) too high and has negative divergence.
BOND	*UP
EURO	UP
GOLD	UP
GDX	UP	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL	UP
ENERGY	UP
FINANCIALS	UP	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
MATERIALS	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update.
4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. LA = Lateral Trend.

hunting

sofa，，，，:(13):

nanosensor

Dig!

lilianc

ban deng

hunting

sofa，，，，第2张，，:(13):

hunting

再抢一张，，好，看报告，，，谢班长

fara

sa fa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

fara

sa fa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

fara

catbear

今天哦就不抢了。

Alchemist

fara

fara

IMeMyself

re and thanks

Paul

1st page.

hunting

fara 发表于 2010-10-6 21:24

    别哭，明天还有机会，，，

George25

谢谢!

tonghu

maomi

daxiong

Ding!!!