10/07/2010 大盘回顾 （Up Huge with No Follow-through）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up and I hold partial long position overnight because the mini price target hasn’t met, not because it’s safe to hold overnight. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/10-10/11 10/07 : 10/08 10/11 Next pivot date: 10/05 – 10/11

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/05 Market Recap: 16 more trading days upswing? *See 10/07 Market Recap, I have doubt now. 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: mini SPX target 1173. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 19 unfilled gaps, the max is 19. 09/23 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days means 79% chances to close below 09/23 close in 10 days.  Failed! 09/27 Market Recap: AAPL is now too stretched. 10/01 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/01 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. *6.3.1b Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 consecutive down days after MAD was a bad sign. *6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish Reversal Day, pullback?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L Breakeven

 

SHORT-TERM: NO FOLLOW-THROUGH AFTER EACH HUGE UP DAY, DOESN’T FEEL LIKE A STRONG UPTREND

 

昨天的报告说了，今天必须收绿，否则2 consecutive red days after a Major Accumulation Day was a bad sign。很遗憾，今天不仅仅是2 red days in a row，而且还整了个bearish reversal day。从下面的图看，这两种情况都意味着some short-term weakness ahead。

 

 

老实说，尽管现在感觉上政府无所不能，因此股市要涨到天上去的气氛很浓，但是实际上：

1. 我们最近的3个huge up day却无一例外，此后都没有follow-through，反而是一个接着一个整反转意义很浓的棒棒。
2. 我在10/04 Market Recap里提到过，QQQQ down 6 days in a row只有在intermediate-term downtrend中才可能发生。

把这些凑在一起考虑，this simply doesn’t feel like a strong uptrend。所以结论就是：

1. Although I’m not implying that you should short but at least don’t get too bullish now.
2. 10/05 to 10/11 may indeed contain an important pivot date which could mean a top of some kind.
3. For intermediate-term, I’ll reiterate the bearish view.

 

关于明天的Non Farm Payroll，除了今天的After Bell Quick Summary blah blah的那些以外，这里借用Bespoke再老调重谈一下：

If Friday’s report comes in significantly stronger and the market opens up, history says not to chase it. If the report comes in much weaker than expected and the market opens down, investors should look to buy on weakness.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SEEMS 11%+ RISE GUARANTEED BEFORE YEAR END, I’M SKEPTICAL HOWEVER

See 10/01 Market Recap for details.

 

SEASONALITY: OCTOBER IS BULLISH

See 10/01 Market Recap for October Seasonality chart.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ	*UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM	UP
CHINA
EMERGING	*LA	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
CANADA	UP	TOADV MA(10) too high and has negative divergence.
BOND	*DOWN
EURO	UP	*Bearish Reversal Bar, pullback?
GOLD	*LA	*Bearish Engulfing, pullback?
GDX	*DOWN	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high. *3.2.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Daily): Bearish Engulfing, pullback?
OIL	*DOWN	*Bearish Engulfing, pullback?
ENERGY	UP	*Bearish Reversal Bar, pullback?
FINANCIALS	*LA	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming? *3.4.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Bearish Engulfing, pullback?
REITS	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging. *3.4.1 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily): Black bar, pullback?
MATERIALS	UP	*Bearish Engulfing, pullback?

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update.
4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. LA = Lateral Trend.

coolwenwen

ding!

mlif

3ks!

熊胆牛心

floor

humbletrader

basement

shinings

地下二层

STEVEN

lucky99

Bench!

STEVEN

：（63）：

oda

在水一方

班长辛苦了。

michaelzhang

channel

 
TREND
MOMENTUM
COMMENT

Long-term
2 of 2 are BUY
 


Intermediat ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-10-7 21:12

老蛇最近是很神的。不仅大方向正确，而且连微波都没漏掉。

like2swing

thanks.

greatinter

妞妞

谢班长, 糟糕, 也许什么就要回调了, 今天买了一点点金融股准备做长期投资.

daxiong

Ding!

leftright

jeeplover

first page

lehldk

Ding