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SPY SETUP |
ENTRY DATE |
STOP LOSS |
INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU |
Non-Stop |
09/07 L |
N/A |
Partial profits on 09/24. |
ST Model |
09/24 L |
Breakeven |
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SHORT-TERM: NO FOLLOW-THROUGH AFTER EACH HUGE UP DAY, DOESN’T FEEL LIKE A STRONG UPTREND
昨天的报告说了,今天必须收绿,否则2 consecutive red days after a Major Accumulation Day was a bad sign。很遗憾,今天不仅仅是2 red days in a row,而且还整了个bearish reversal day。从下面的图看,这两种情况都意味着some short-term weakness ahead。
老实说,尽管现在感觉上政府无所不能,因此股市要涨到天上去的气氛很浓,但是实际上:
- 我们最近的3个huge up day却无一例外,此后都没有follow-through,反而是一个接着一个整反转意义很浓的棒棒。
- 我在10/04 Market Recap里提到过,QQQQ down 6 days in a row只有在intermediate-term downtrend中才可能发生。
把这些凑在一起考虑,this simply doesn’t feel like a strong uptrend。所以结论就是:
- Although I’m not implying that you should short but at least don’t get too bullish now.
- 10/05 to 10/11 may indeed contain an important pivot date which could mean a top of some kind.
- For intermediate-term, I’ll reiterate the bearish view.
关于明天的Non Farm Payroll,除了今天的After Bell Quick Summary blah blah的那些以外,这里借用Bespoke再老调重谈一下:
If Friday’s report comes in significantly stronger and the market opens up, history says not to chase it. If the report comes in much weaker than expected and the market opens down, investors should look to buy on weakness.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SEEMS 11%+ RISE GUARANTEED BEFORE YEAR END, I’M SKEPTICAL HOWEVER
See 10/01 Market Recap for details.
SEASONALITY: OCTOBER IS BULLISH
See 10/01 Market Recap for October Seasonality chart. HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update.
- Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- LA = Lateral Trend.
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