10/08/2010 大盘回顾 （No 2 Consecutive Up Days for 3 Weeks）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up, I hold tiny long position over the weekend. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/10-10/11 10/07 : 10/08 10/11 Next pivot date: 10/05 – 10/11

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/05 Market Recap: 16 more trading days upswing? See 10/07 Market Recap, I have doubt now. 1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: mini SPX target 1173. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 19 unfilled gaps, the max is 19. 09/23 Market Recap: SPX down 3 days means 79% chances to close below 09/23 close in 10 days.  Failed! 09/27 Market Recap: AAPL is now too stretched. 10/01 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/01 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 6.3.1b Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 consecutive down days after MAD was a bad sign. 6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish Reversal Day, pullback? *10/08 Market Recap: Up off-season usually means down earning season. *6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: SPX will close below 1165 within 2 days?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L Breakeven

 

SHORT-TERM: NO 2 CONSECUTIVE UP DAYS FOR 3 WEEKS, UPTREND IS WEAKENING

 

我在10/07 Market Recap里提到最近的huge up day (up more than 1.5%) simply had no follow-through thereafter，下面的图从另一个角度对比了when uptrend is young vs when uptrend is old的情形。很明显目前的上升动能正在减弱是不争的事实，a top of some kind is approaching。当然timing top是件很难的事情，因此我不是说要short，还是老话，don’t get too bullish。

 

 

1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，negative divergence too large，因此看着比较bearish，不排除pullback to test price channel support的可能。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED

 

关于intermediate-term还是maintain bearish view。理由已经陆陆续续交待过了，下面简单的总结一下：

1. As mentioned in 10/01 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/01 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average) is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/01 Market Recap, institution selling keeps increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/05 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season could mean a weaker earning season.

下面的图是以上4大理由的update，供参考。其中关于off season vs earning season的统计分别来自最新的Bespoke and Sentimentrader report。

 

 

 

 

 

SEASONALITY: OCTOBER EXPIRATION MONAY WAS BULLISH, EXPIRATION DAY WAS BEARISH

 

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before October expiration, Dow up 24 of 29.
2. October expiration day, Dow down 4 straight and 5 of last 6.

For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM	UP
CHINA
EMERGING	*UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
CANADA	UP	TOADV MA(10) too high and has negative divergence.
BOND	DOWN
EURO	UP	Bearish Reversal Bar, pullback?
GOLD	*UP	Bearish Engulfing, pullback?
GDX	*UP	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high. 3.2.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Daily): Bearish Engulfing, pullback?
OIL	*UP	Bearish Engulfing, pullback?
ENERGY	UP
FINANCIALS	*UP	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming? 3.4.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily): Bearish Engulfing, pullback?
REITS	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging. 3.4.1 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily): Black bar, pullback?
MATERIALS	UP

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
3. * = New update.
4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
5. LA = Lateral Trend.

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