10/12/2010 大盘回顾（CPCI Too High）

Cobra · 发表于 2010-10-12 06:50 PM

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	2 of 2 are BUY
Intermediate	3 of 3 are BUY	3 of 5 are NEUTRAL	SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term	Model is BUY	5 of 6 are NEUTRAL	The trend is up but I hold no long position overnight.
GANN DAY	MOON:SOLAR	CYCLE	CONCLUSION
10/10-10/11	10/07 : 10/08	10/11	Next pivot date: 10/05 – 10/11

BULLISH

0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
~~10/05 Market Recap: 16 more trading days upswing?~~ See 10/07 Market Recap, I have doubt now.
1.2.0 INDU Leads Market: mini SPX target 1173.

BEARISH

1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 19 unfilled gaps, the max is 19.
10/08 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish.
10/08 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
6.3.1b Major Accumulation Day Watch: 2 consecutive down days after MAD was a bad sign.
6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch: Bearish Reversal Day, pullback?
10/08 Market Recap: Up off-season usually means down earning season.
10/08 Market Recap: Institutions are selling into strength.
~~6.1.9a Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: SPX will close below 1165 within 2 days?~~ Failed!
6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: Record low.
*0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCI too high, topped?

SPY SETUP	ENTRY DATE	STOP LOSS	INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop	09/07 L	N/A	Partial profits on 09/24.
ST Model	09/24 L	Breakeven

SHORT-TERM: CPCI TOO HIGH WAS NOT A GOOD SIGN

我发现我说话比分析股市管用，09/10 Market Recap，标题“Show me the strength”，结果the next trading day开始大盘就猛涨，10/08 Market Recap，标题我说“No 2 Consecutive Up Days for 3 Weeks ”，结果就是连涨3天。我在想，是不是哪天我说Give me SPX 3000，咱们大家就都可以提前退休了？呵呵。

Anyway，股市终于连涨了3天，这是好现象，这样的话，我在10/05 Market Recap里提到的可能repeat what happened in April that after 10/05 breakout, there could be 16 more trading days upswing ahead就又变得有可能了。这里，我不是强调16天，而是说熊熊要做好最坏的打算，在没有连续几天pullback之前形成的new high，几乎guaranteed will be tested，换句话说，就是既使明天开始大跌，今天的high at SPX 1172 (near 1172 is OK, either higher or lower) most likely will be tested after the pullback。（为什么？这是一般pattern哈，愚蠢的地球人做什么事情都喜欢试两次，两次都失败了，才有反转的可能，要不怎么会Double Top/Double Bottom很常见呢？）

其他没啥好说的，今天又多了个bad sign，下面的图应该很清楚，CPCI太高不是好现象。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED

Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view. Below are summaries of all the arguments I’ve been blah blah recently:

As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average) is way too bullish.
As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, institution selling keeps increasing.
As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season could mean a weaker earning season.

SEASONALITY: OCTOBER EXPIRATION MONAY WAS BULLISH, EXPIRATION DAY WAS BEARISH

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

Monday before October expiration, Dow up 24 of 29.
October expiration day, Dow down 4 straight and 5 of last 6.

For October Seasonality chart please refer to 10/01 Market Recap.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQQ	UP	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM	UP
CHINA		Confirmed breakout, very bullish.
EMERGING	UP	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high. *1.4.1 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Daily): Hollow red bar, pullback?
CANADA	UP	TOADV MA(10) too high and has negative divergence.
BOND	DOWN
EURO	*UP
GOLD	UP
GDX	UP	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high. 3.2.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Daily): Bearish Engulfing, pullback?
OIL	DOWN	*Black bar.
ENERGY	UP	*Hollow red bar, pullback?
FINANCIALS	UP	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	UP	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
MATERIALS	UP	Bearish Reversal Bar, pullback?

Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
* = New update.
Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
LA = Lateral Trend.

熊胆牛心 · 发表于 2010-10-12 06:52 PM

windy · 发表于 2010-10-12 06:52 PM

navybean · 发表于 2010-10-12 06:52 PM

hillcrest · 发表于 2010-10-12 06:53 PM

Thanks!

student009 · 发表于 2010-10-12 06:53 PM

Bencat · 发表于 2010-10-12 06:54 PM

yes, more new highs are coming!

fara · 发表于 2010-10-12 06:54 PM

sf2

Bigmouth · 发表于 2010-10-12 06:55 PM

Floor?

fara · 发表于 2010-10-12 06:55 PM

Bigmouth · 发表于 2010-10-12 06:55 PM

STEVEN · 发表于 2010-10-12 06:56 PM

jamesmith · 发表于 2010-10-12 06:56 PM

WK! 你们也太快了吧~~ 看来我要认真点抢沙发了~~~

IMeMyself · 发表于 2010-10-12 06:57 PM

re, thanks

oldfox · 发表于 2010-10-12 06:59 PM

whoami · 发表于 2010-10-12 06:59 PM

ddddddddddddd

t-k · 发表于 2010-10-12 07:00 PM

can2000 · 发表于 2010-10-12 07:03 PM

thanks

southware · 发表于 2010-10-12 07:04 PM

班长辛苦了

tonghu · 发表于 2010-10-12 07:05 PM

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[技术分析] 10/12/2010 大盘回顾（CPCI Too High）

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[技术分析] 10/12/2010 大盘回顾 （CPCI Too High）

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[技术分析] 10/12/2010 大盘回顾（CPCI Too High）